8/23 LoL Betting Breakdown

Really nice day in LoL and a tough one in soccer, haven’t written that a lot this summer!

LPL

JD Gaming (-246) vs. LGD (+187)

LGD has won two playoff series so far by hard-winning in the jungle against an overrated jungler in Beishang and a below average one in Ning. That’s not happening against Kanavi. He has gotten the better of Peanut in 4 of their 5 matches this year and I think most people rate him as the marginally better player. What does LGD do well when Peanut doesn’t carry them? My answer to that is “Not a lot.” Their difference in stats from when Peanut carries to when it’s up to someone else goes from playoff team to one of the worst teams in the league.

I would take every single JDG laner over their LGD counterpart. Kramer and his supports have had a nice season, but they’re not quite on Loken and Lvmao’s level. Xiye and Yagao are very close, but I would take Yagao after seeing what he did to Knight last split. Then, there is a top gulf more than a gap. Zoom is still the best top laner in the world and Langx is a few tiers below him in my book. We saw that top laners can still carry teams courtesy of 369 this morning. I, for one, would love to see Zoom get on something like a Jax and take over. With a hard pushing top and carry jungle becoming a solid win condition on this patch, Kanavi and Zoom are about to have themselves a series.

When it comes to the underlying team stats, it’s no contest. JDG is one of the best teams in the world, and LGD is an average playoff team with a singular win condition–drake stacking. If I can identify this, JDG’s world class coaching staff can identify it. If LGD wants to win even one game here, I have a feeling they will have to show something else. I just don’t think they have anything else.

The Picks: JDG -1.5 Maps (-103) 2u, JDG -2.5 Maps (+303) 1u

LCK

DRX vs. T1

I’m skipping this one because there is nothing to play for and those kinds of games are very volatile.

Team Dynamics (-235) vs. Hanwha Life Esports (+170) 

There’s an argument to be made for Hanwha on talent alone, but I’m not making it. Hanwha ,despite having some near-elite talent, has been awful this split. They are clearly a team with no identity and I don’t trust them to figure it out here. Team Dynamics know who they are. They are a team who can play solid, standard LoL against the bottom of the table, but can not compete with the talent of the top teams. HLE is a clear bottom table team. I like Dynamics to get the job done.

The Picks: Team Dynamics ML (-235) 1u, Team Dynamics -1.5 Maps (+135) 0.5u

LEC

Fnatic (+135) vs. Rogue (-145)

Rogue has passed the test every time in the regular season. Every time I thought they would falter against an elite team, they stuck to their style and won the game. But I still can’t back them against Fnatic.

The regular season is not the postseason, especially when Fnatic is involved. We have seen this team spend entire months experimenting in the regular season to then turn it on come playoff time. Their ability to out think their opponents in drafts really shines in the best of 5 format. FNC has certainly had a bad read on the meta at times this split, but with a couple weeks off I’m trusting them to have it figured out.

The real reason I like Fnatic here though is talent. I give them a pretty significant edge in the top lane where Bwipo has a much larger champion pool and more consistent win conditions. In the jungle, despite an off split, you have to look at the body of work from Selfmade and give him the edge. Bot lane is again Fnatic favored, if Hylissang can get his play under control again. Rogue’s bot lane gets too much credit for just playing to not lose every game. Rogue will look for their edge to be in the mid lane where Larssen has been terrific this split. He is getting laning leads against the best mids in the league and is an excellent team fighter. My question is this: What happens to Rogue if they can’t play their front to back team fight style? Is Larssen still this effective? You have to think Fnatic will be ready to counter this style. Do you trust Rogue to have an answer? I don’t.

Still, I’ve been burned going with talent in these playoffs a few too many times now, so I’m going to play this one light and maybe get a little more involved live on Twitter.

The Picks (for now): FNC ML (+135) 1u, FNC Over 11.5 Kills on Map 1 (-114) 1u 

LCS

TSM (-171) vs. Golden Guardians (+134)

Something I’m very interested in studying over the offseason is the effect of the “revenge game” in LoL. In traditional sports, handicappers have been all over revenge games for teams of near quality as a place for value. Anecdotally, I feel pretty confident that it exists in LoL too. When I used it as part of my reasoning for Damwon to beat DRX in the LCK, it seemed to be a real motivator. When I used it for G2 to beat up on Mad today, it came true. With LoL being so heavily influenced by preparation and countering a specific opponent, it would make sense that the revenge game would give a team an edge in matchups of similar quality. When you’ve been thoroughly beaten by something, all of your preparation goes into adjusting for it the next time you play. Whereas the winners will want to repeat what made them so successful in the first game. I think you know where I’m going with this.

TSM has more talent than GGS. I don’t think anyone could credibly argue to the contrary. Their first series was a case of Golden Guardians having a very specific plan for countering TSM and then Doublelift playing the worst playoff series of his life. Great players rarely have series like that twice in a row. Is it possible that Doublelift is just cooked? Sure, but I think we would have seen more clear signs of it in the regular season. 

Generally speaking, I don’t trust TSM’s coaching staff at all, but they have too many smart players on that team to get spanked in the draft for another best of 5. It brings me no joy to bet on TSM again, but I think it’s the right side here. Over an 18 game sample size, they were the better fundamental team than GGS. In 3 games a week ago, they got dumpstered. With revenge in mind, I think there’s unfortunately value on TSM here.

The Picks: TSM ML (-171) 2u, TSM  Over 10.5 Kills on all maps (-130) 1u each

8/22 LoL betting breakdown

Bring on more LCS and MLS please is all I can say about today right now! In all seriousness, I think the process on SK was right, but the way I went about betting it was probably wrong. There was a lot of “win more” in how I approached today. In the future, I think I would just bet the moneyline or spread at a large size and call it good. The line was bad, but Schalke winning was always well within the range of outcomes, and if that was to be the case then all my bets were dead. Not a smart way to approach things.

LPL

Top Esports(-326) vs. Suning Gaming (+241)

To me, this matchup is all about Knight. He is just leaps and bounds ahead of Angel as a player. If Top can make him the focus and give him comfortable champions (of which he has plenty), I think they can win here with relative ease. The rest of the lanes are very close and I can’t see Suning getting serious advantages anywhere like they were able to against V5. It’s possible that Bin puts 369 into the dumpster like he did against BiuBiu, but 369 has been comfortable playing weak side all season and surprised everyone last playoffs by playing an under-control engager in almost every game. Top doesn’t need him to win for them to win.

The season-long team stats pretty heavily favor Top Esports. They lead Suning in GSPD, EGR, MLR, and the teams are tied in Baron%, but I will admit I’ve become a little wary of season-long stats in these playoffs. It does feel like the meta-game shift has heavily affected teams who were dominant in the early season like Top was. Suning’s recent form has been excellent. In the current patch, they have the top GSPD in the LPL. Still, I think you have to trust talent in these situations. Top has the game breaker here in Knight. 

The Picks: Top Esports -1.5 (-108) 1u, Top Esports -2.5 (+287) 0.5u

LCK

Under 2.5 Games Parlay in DWG vs. KT and Gen.G vs. AF (+105) 1u

Here’s what I think is going to happen: Damwon and Gen.G are going to smash KT and Afreeca. But when it comes to end of season games you can never be sure of what’s going to happen so I don’t love laying all that juice for the -1.5s in these. So rather than do that, let’s parlay the unders to include the possibility that KT gets frisky and cheeses two off of Damwon. Again, I will have a lot more to say about the LCK playoffs when they are here, but for now the slates are pretty chalky.

LEC

G2 Esports(-245) vs. MAD Lions (+187)

This line is pretty unfair to the team that MAD was to begin the season, but they, like C9, fell away from the dominant team that they were to begin the season in the second half. In fact, they fell all the way down to a GSPD of 2.7% after being above 7 for a long stretch this season. It points to the struggles they’ve had getting serious leads on teams in the second half of the season. Their bot lane in particular is averaging some pretty concerning deficits in laning stats. 

It’s not like their bot lane foes on G2 have been smashing people either. However, I have a higher trust in that team to get right. Last summer, there were all kinds of questions about Perkz as a bot laner and then he became one of the best in the world at playoffs and Worlds. This Spring, everyone was dying for Caps to switch away from the bot lane and then he completely bodied FNC on Kog’Maw. I have a feeling Perkz will be just fine for G2 in this series.

Elsewhere on the map, I still favor G2’s talent. Wunder is still generally underrated and would be totally comfortable carrying this series on one of the meta top carries, Jankos and Shadow are basically the pointing Spiderman meme, and despite a monster season from Humanoid, is anyone actually taking him over Caps in the proverbial gun-to-head situation? It’s what makes G2 impossible to quit. If they decide to be, they are at a significant talent advantage over every team in western LoL. 

The stats are very close for these two teams, so this is pure gut. My gut says G2 wants to put Mad Lions in their place tomorrow. 

The Picks: G2 -1.5 Maps (-105) 1u, G2 -2.5 Maps (+290) 0.5u, 

LCS

Cloud9 (-459) vs. Evil Geniuses (+320)

At first, I thought I was going to be all over EG here. Cloud9 showed some legitimate issues in their series against FlyQuest. Their propensity to overplay their hands when they think that they can outplay a bad situation or to just egregiously chase kills is going to get them beat against FLY and TL, but I’m not sure EG is that team. Can EG with Svenskeren and GoldenGlue, two notorious hero-to-zero players, resist the temptation to try to beat C9 at their style? I have my doubts.

If you read me or check oracleselixir.com regularly you know that C9 was far and away the better statistical team throughout the regular season, and despite only having a playoff loss on their record is pretty close to EG in the playoffs as well. This is because EG has genuinely won 3 games I and the numbers thought they should have lost in this playoffs. Bang has been fantastic and played them out of losses, but that can only last so long before some regression hits. I’m also hopeful that C9 will, please for the love of god, ban Senna who is Bang’s bread and butter.

Zven arcane-shifting into his death on Ezreal can also,hopefully, only last so long. He honestly looked like he was trying to lose at times against FlyQuest and lost game 4 all by himself. It wasn’t his day, I’m trusting him to play more to his standards in this one. If that’s the case, C9 has a pretty clear talent edge everywhere else on the map.

With all of that said, I don’t think there’s much value in the Money Line or map spread, so I’m going to approach this one a little bit differently.  I have been trying to get back into making a model for kill totals for teams. It will surprise no one that C9 is still the top “Kill strength” team in the LCS, but EG also ranks as the worst “Death Strength” team in the LCS. Their elos combined with the league average total for kills has C9 getting 16 or 17 kills a game here. That’s pretty nice value on them as the books have their kill total set at 13.5.

The Picks: C9 over 13.5 Kills in every game (-114) 1u each, C9 -2.5 Games (+214) 0.5u

8/21 LoL betting breakdown

Tough one today. I thought C9 could just flip the switch come playoff time, but it just didn’t happen. I don’t think it’s coincidental that their downfall and FPX’s downfall have corresponded. The two teams preferred style of LoL is just no longer the best way to play anymore and neither has found the answer to the “so now what?” question. C9 tried to give all the carry power to Zven in this series and he just came up short. I think this team is in real danger here against an improving EG, but that’s for another day. If you’re looking for my LCS betting thoughts for tomorrow check me out here with linemovement.com.

Seol Hae One Prince (+184) vs. Team Dynamics (-225)

I’m going to keep this brief because of that old saying about not saying anything when you have nothing nice to say. I have nothing nice to say about SHO. I recognize that they almost beat DRX in their last series, but DRX is solidly in the IG-esque trolling portion of their season. I would not take a lot away from that series other than SHO will allow teams to beat themselves if they try really hard to.

Outside of that series, Seol Hae One is the worst statistical team in LoL. Their GSPD of -11.9% rivals last year’s V5 and Vitality teams that won 5 games combined. It’s just awful. The team just consistently loses everywhere on the map.  If I tried to go lane for lane in this series, I would have Team Dynamics favored everywhere. This is truly a “team diff”.

Team Dynamics, after their hot start, is coming back to reality. Their games against middle-of-the-pack teams, despite being mostly losses, have gone to 3 games. I think their record is a little unfair to their quality. They should be able to take care of business and build some confidence against SHO.

The Picks: Team Dynamics ML (-225) 1u, Team Dynamics -1.5 (+160) 0.5u

SK Gaming (+190) vs. FC Schalke 04 (-275)

When I saw this line, my jaw hit the floor. I am still coming to terms with it. I handicapped this before the lines were out and I was looking to make a decent-sized play on SK at around -125. So, when I realized I was going to get that on +1.5, well you’ll see.

Schalke made an amazing miracle run to the end the season and looked revitalized by having Gilius back in the lineup. He was absolutely on fire to end the season. We’ve seen that before from Gilius and then seen him turn back into a pumpkin. A lot of their run centered around getting Gilius onto Lee Sin. His playmaking on that champion completely changed the game for S04. The issue is SK’s jungler–Trick–is also a Lee Sin specialist. He will be confident trying to match his opponent on this champion or they can do something that no one else has done in this run: ban Gilius out. If they force Gilius into the Sett, Volibear, Kindred area, I think S04 is in big trouble.

The rest of the map is even or SK-favored in my opinion. Mid lane is a wash(Abbedage has run very hot lately). Top lane is slightly SK-favored for me. Finally, the bot lane has a large talent gap. Crownshot and Limit have been beating up on even the best bot lanes in the league. Their GD10, XPD10, and CSD10 are best in the league or near best in the league despite the team being .500. Schalke’s bot lane–even with Neon– is solidly lower half in those stats. It is partially because Schalke’s focus on the top side of the map, but if they try that against SK, they will lose. Trick loves to gank the bot to set up Crownshot or himself to carry the game.  

If you look at season-long team stats (knowing that this includes multiple iterations of Schalke), it is pretty clearly SK favored. They are ahead of Schalke in GSPD, MLR, and Baron%. The one point of concern will be the early game. SK is near the bottom of the table in the early game where Schalke has been above average in Early Game Rating. Again, I think that’s partially due to Gillius’ success on Lee Sin which I don’t expect him to be playing in this series. Put simply, I think SK should be favored. This will be my biggest spot of the year so far.

The Picks: SK + 1.5 Maps (-120) 4u, SK ML (+190) 3u, SK -1.5 (+400) 0.5u, SK -2.5 (+1100) 0.5u

8/16 LoL betting breakdown

I hope for my betting sake that the LCS maintains this playoff format, but for the quality of play this has got to go. Dignitas did not belong anywhere near a playoff game. Everyone who watches the league could have told you that, but still there they were. TSM actually played pretty poorly, but never even really had to sweat in this series. When people talk about the dearth of talent in North American LoL, they are talking about Dignitas. Just terrible.

Although the V5-SNG series was a 3-1, it was very close. I think if they play that series a hundred times each team wins 50 of them. We just turned out to be on the wrong side of the coin today. Suning played slightly better than I expected, but V5 losing was always well within the likely range of outcomes.

The LCK is as steady as ever. Afreeca beats a bottom half team, Damwon sweeps everyone, and Seol Hae beats no one. It’s refreshing after the constant, seemingly random upset pain in the LEC and LPL this split. 

Invictus Gaming vs. LGD

  • Top- IG Theshy vs  LGD Langx                                                              The Edge: IG
  • Jungle- IG Ning vs. LGD  Peanut                                                           The Edge: LGD
  • Mid- IG Rookie vs. SNG Angel                                                               The Edge: IG
  • Bot Duo-  IG Baolan and Puff vs. LGD Mark and Kramer                     The Edge: IG

I truly believe that IG has a talent advantage on every team in the World. Theshy and Rookie’s laning numbers are absolutely absurd. I mean look at this. To be consistently getting those kinds of leads against pro players at 10 minutes is ridiculous. Their control over the laning phase of the game is only matched by themselves in previous eras. That era was when they were one of the best teams of all time. There’s some meta-game shifts that look like we may be headed back towards that era. 

First, the carry top has returned. We saw BiuBiu play Lucian to pretty great effect this morning.  If he can dominate the lane like that on Lucian, what will Theshy do with this champ back in the meta? Langx has to shudder at the thought. Even if he’s forcing Lucian bans, there are plenty of other carry champions that have become viable in the top lane like Fiora, Hecarim, or the ever steady, Gangplank. There’s a serious Theshy redemption arc brewing.

Second, Rookie looks like he wants the best player in the world status back from Knight. He has been absolutely terrifying on Orianna and Zoe this split. Those two champions have started to define the playoff meta. If he’s on Zoe,  a champ that has a 56% win rate in the LPL, I think the game is pretty much over.

The one position where I gave LGD the edge is in the Jungle. I’m not sure it will matter in this series. Peanut has been thriving on his laners getting ahead and having the ability to go for aggressive invades and dives. I don’t think LGD laners will be able to get ahead at all in this series. What does Peanut become when he has to help out losing lanes? We’re about to find out.

IG has always had dominant talent though, it is in their macro execution and team play where they faltered last split. That too has started to clean up. After having a gold spent deficit last split, they are now the 3rd best team in the league at +3.8% in that metric. LGD is a +1.1%. Also after struggling to put the appropriate emphasis on map objectives in spring, IG is taking 59% of the barons this split. The stats aside, IG has looked to be taking the game more seriously again. When that happens, no one can beat them. I’m putting my trust back into Invictus Gaming, I understand if you can’t. 

The picks: IG -1.5 Games (-145) 2u, IG 3-0 (+250) 1u

100 Thieves vs. Evil Geniuses

  • Top- 100T Ssumday vs. EG Huni                                                            The Edge: 100T
  • Jungle- 100T Contractz vs. EG Svenskeren                                            The Edge: 100T
  • Mid- 100T Ryoma vs. EG Goldenglue                                                     The Edge: Even
  • Bot Duo-  100T CodySun and Poome vs. EG Bang and Zeyzal              The Edge: EG

Here’s the problem for Evil Geniuses: Huni thinks he’s Theshy when he’s a bit more like Theantishy. His laning differentials are some of the worst in the league, averaging a deficit in gold, XP and CS at 10 minutes, but for some reason EG will draft for him like he’s peak Smeb. They’re in big trouble if they do that against 100T. Sssumday is a legitimate solo carry and has been one since he entered the LCS. He averages gold and experience differentials that rival the best top laners in the world.  A lot of what I talked about with Theshy could be applied to Ssumday here as well.

EG has a definite edge in the bot lane. Bang really came through in EG’s two wins yesterday and they will need him to do so again if they’re going to win this one. CodySun and Poome are fine players, but will struggle against the former world champ. Bang’s success centered around one champion in their first series: Senna. If I can recognize that, I’m sure that 100T’s coaching staff can recognize that. I would be looking to do whatever I can to keep Bang off Senna.

A lot of folks were encouraged by EG’s performance in game 3 and game 4 yesterday, I was not. Their win in game 3 was relatively legitimate, although I think there were some problems with the FLY draft. Then, Flyquest should win game 4 a lot of the time if Solo does not decide to throw the game. If you let Huni get confident and comfortable, he can beat you and Solo played very disrespectfully in that game. Honestly, I felt like Flyquest got a little disrespectful in the draft phase in games 3 and 4 and easily won again in game 5 when they wanted to. 100 Thieves are the dogs here and will not be taking anything for granted.

The team stats have these two neck and neck with little edges for 100 Thieves that have become much bigger edges since they revamped their roster. 100 Thieves are 6-6 with their roster swap, EG is 4-8. 100T has a GSPD of +3.8%, EG has a -2.9%. 100T takes 56% of Barons, Eg takes 13%! If I were making the odds for this one, I would have 100T favored. We have to take big value when we can get it. 

The Picks: 100T +1.5 (-135) 3u, 100T ML (+165) 2u,   

LCK

Once the LCK gets into the playoffs I will have a lot more to say about it and I think there will be a lot of interesting spots. But I don’t think anyone is reading a breakdown on why DRX is going to 2-0 Seol Hae One and Gen. G is going to 2-0 Hanwa. So, here’s another “that makes sense” LCK parlay

The Pick: Gen. G and DRX -1.5 Parlay (-175) 1u

8/15 LoL betting breakdown

Yesterday I wrote entirely about how I liked the talent of LGD better than WE and went through their superior stats and then still ended up betting on WE. Not going to be doing that again. Flyquest played pretty disrespectfully in game 3 and 4, a bit of a bad beat there. The lines for these playoffs have felt pretty soft so far and have had some large moves towards the correct side.  One line I will tell you I’m already on in a very large way for next week is SK ML against S04. I bet it at +195, but it’s already down to +180. I expect that to keep going down because I believe SK should be favored. Before we get there though, let’s look at tomorrow.

Victory 5 vs. Suning Gaming

  • Top- V5 BiuBiu vs  SNG. Bin                                                                   The Edge: Suning
  • Jungle- V5 WeiWei vs. SNG  SofM                                                         The Edge: V5
  • Mid- V5 Mole vs. SNG Angel                                                                   The Edge: Even
  • Bot Duo-  V5 ppgod and SamD vs. SNG SwordArt and Huanfeng         The Edge: V5

I honestly can’t believe that this opened with Victory 5 as the dogs. There’s still plenty of value on V5 at its current coinflip status. That starts with just raw talent.  Take the name plates away and V5 has better performing players everywhere, save for top lane. V5’s bot lane, specifically, should  easily be able to get ahead of SwordArt and Huanfeng. They took full advantage of the underperforming Crisp in the FPX series. We’ve got another underperforming veteran support for them to pick on here. SwordArt has been pretty bad this split and, in my estimation, looks like his career may be over soon.  WeiWei is the rare kind of jungler that can get so far ahead by himself that it can make it difficult for their opponents to come back.  Finally, if you let Mole have Zoe, you’re just going to lose. V5 just has more ways to win than SNG.

The stats have these teams about as even as two teams can get, with small edges towards V5 across the board, especially in early game indicators. However, their results against top teams could not be more opposite. SNG were 2-0’d by IG, JDG, and TES and never looked particularly close with those teams. V5 beat both TES and JDG and went into a 2-1 with IG. This team keeps rising to the occasion. Their ability to win games from losing positions against FPX has me convinced they are going to Worlds. That starts by beating Suning. 

The picks: V5 ML (+106) 2u, V5 -1.5 (+170) 1u, V5 -2.5 (+594) 0.5u

TSM vs. Team Dignitas

  • Top- TSM BrokenBlade vs  Dig Lourlo                                                    The Edge: TSM
  • Jungle- TSM Spica vs. Dig Dardoch                                                        The Edge: Even
  • Mid- TSM Bjergsen vs. Dig Fenix                                                            The Edge: TSM
  • Bot Duo-  TSM Doublelift and Treatz vs. Dig Johnsun and Aphromoo    The Edge: Even

Dignitas doesn’t belong in a playoff match. I would argue that maybe only Johnsun will be playing in the LCS next split. The mid lane gap in this matchup is as big as it gets in professional play. Fenix against Bjergsen is like when Federer or Nadal plays one of those poor guys in the early rounds of Wimbledon. There is no comparing the players. Strangely, Dignitas do have two lanes where they have to like their chances to go even. TSM’s bot lane was shockingly bad in their first playoff series and that is Dig’s strength. Then, the jungle matchup is a matchup of TSM’s two most recent junglers. Neither is a particularly impressive player. 

I’m giving TSM a full mulligan on yesterday for this series. They got completely outthought in multiple drafts and then Doublelift pretty clearly lost his mind after game 1. Dignitas is not capable of that kind of play in my opinion. The only way they win a game is if TSM beat themselves again. Bjergsen won’t let them. The stats are very clear: TSM should be massive favorites. They have a +2.0% GSPD compared to Dignitas -3.3%. Gaps of 5+% in that statistic usually means, especially on opposite sides of zero, the game is a serious mismatch. TSM should also control the Baron here. They average 56% of Barons compared to Dignitas’ terrible 28%. I was concerned by TSM’s loss yesterday. I think they will be upset again in these playoffs, but not by Dig.

The Picks: TSM -1.5 (-200) 2u, TSM 3-0 (+145) 1u

LCK

I’m just going to keep playing what makes sense in the LCK. It is the one league in the world where you can pretty much count on what you’ve seen so far holding. Their favorites typically win and 2-0. What makes sense on this slate is two things: Damwon 2-0s Team Dynamics and Afreeca continues to beat up the bottom half teams against Sandbox. So I’m going with the “that makes sense” parlay here.

The Pick: AF ML and Damwon -1.5 Parlay (-141) 1u

8/14 LoL Betting Breakdown

V5 is legit. There were multiple moments in that series in which you would think “Uh oh. This is where the veterans of FPX out shotcall the kids of V5”, but then V5 outplayed them every time. It’s not like this was particularly bad or off-meta play from FPX. They tried to play their game and just got straight up beat. With that said, take a look at the line for V5 vs. Suning. Get in on that now. The less said about the TSM series, the better. I’ll take a look at the academy lines again tomorrow and probably release something on Twitter for that too, but let’s get into the playoff matchups. 

LGD vs. Team World Elite

  • Top-  Langx vs. Morgan      Advantage: LGD
  • Mid-Teacherma vs. xiye     Advantage: LGD
  • Jungle- Beishang vs. Peanut  Advantage: Even
  • Bot Duo- Killua and Kramer vs. Missing and Jiumeng  Advantage: WE

As you can see, I like the talent of LGD better than WE. I like the talent of a lot of teams more than WE, but that doesn’t change the fact that this team just keeps winning. They especially beat teams like LGD who will beat themselves. Their “try to survive and make it to teamfights” style can be difficult for teams like LGD who are known to throw a game or two late. In the stats, these two are pretty close to a coinflip. LGD has a +1% GSPD where WE has an even 0%. LGD has the edge in the early game with a 53.3 rating over WE’s 48.3, but when it goes late WE has the edge with a 6.7 MLR over LGD’s 3.5. Both teams take around 55% of Barons in their games. There’s no significant edges in this one. So I’m going to take the dogs, WE. I think this should be a lot closer to an esports odds coinflip of -115. +135 is just way too much plus money for either team to get in this series.

The Picks: WE ML (+135) 1.5u, WE -1.5 Maps (+275) 1u

Flyquest vs. Evil Geniuses

  • Top- Solo vs. Huni   Advantage: FLY
  • Mid- Powerofevil vs. GoldenGlue Advantage: FLY
  • Jungle- Santorin vs. Svenskeren Advantage: FLY
  • Bot Duo- Wildturtle and Ignar vs. Bang and Zeyzal Advantage: Even

This one’s a lot more clear cut to me than the series in the LPL. Flyquest has the talent edge in every single lane besides bot where I rated them even. Bang is a better player than Wildturtle, but Ignar is a better player than Zeyzal, couple that with the fact that Flyquest’s bot lane has actual synergy and is usually on the same page, we’ll call it a wash. Regardless, Evil Geniuses has shown no desire to win through the bot side this split and that would be a pretty big shake up to their playstyle to make in one week, so I’m not sure the game will even be won on that side of the map in this one. 

Flyquest’s true strength is in their team play. They always understand their compositions, know what they want to do next, and show trust in their teammates to perform in their roles. That is Evil Geniuses downfall. If EG do not get serious advantages in the laning phase, they almost always completely fall apart in the team stages. I’ve broken it down a million times before, but this team is just not on the same page. That’s the kind of team Flyquest feasts on. If we go into my favored statistical indicators as well, Fly is also just miles ahead. Their GSPD is +3.3% compared to Evil Geniuses’ 0.8% ( a number that has gotten much worse since their roster swaps). Their EGR is 51.6 and EG’s is 48.3. Finally and most importantly, they control 68% of the Barons in their games where EG averages a putrid 33%. I think we’re headed for another  sweep in the LCS.

The Picks:  Flyquest ML (-245) 2u, Flyquest -1.5 (-110) 1.5u, Flyquest -2.5 (+273) 1u

DRX -1.5 vs. HLE and KT -1.5 vs. SHO Parlay (Even) 1u

HLE and Seol Hae One are historically bad teams in the LCK, I will be betting them to get swept the rest of the way.

TSM vs. Golden Guardians Betting Breakdown

Before we get into the breakdown, I wanted to point out this resource from James McCool for anyone who may be new to betting on LoL. James provides deeper insight into how the game is played, bet types, and strategy that I’ll be using in this article to break down this specific series.

The LCS will kick off its summer split playoffs on August 13th with a matchup of the league’s defining franchise–TSM– and one of its perpetual underdogs, Golden Guardians. If you’re unfamiliar with the LCS’ playoff format check it out here.  The odds and a quick look at the LCS standings would suggest that Golden Guardians are a massive underdog again. I’m not so sure about that. Let’s look at each lane matchup and then some key team stats to see if there might be value in fading the Yankees of the LCS, TSM. 

Top Lane-  TSM BrokenBlade vs. Golden Guardians Hauntzer

This lane matchup really comes down to what you prefer your top lane to do. Do you prefer a top laner who wants to play carry champions and get ahead of the enemy laner, but could lose the game entirely by himself as well? BrokenBlade’s your guy. If you prefer a traditional go even in lane and effectively tank team fights top laner, then you want Hauntzer. Their stats bare this out too. Hauntzer gets advantages in gold, CS, and experience at 10 minutes against his opponents. BrokenBlade only averages a positive number in gold for those metrics. However, when it comes to getting the first kill on their opponents, BrokenBlade stands alone in the LCS. His first blood percentage of 44% is the highest in the league. Although a lot of the attention in TSM games goes to what stars Doublelift and Bjergsen are doing, TSM games are often determined by what BrokenBlade does. If he’s comfortable and playing well, TSM is tough to beat. Hauntzer, on the other hand, is the steady hand of Golden Guardians. He’s never going to put the team on his back, but he’s also never going to drag them all the way down. This will be a key matchup to watch, if BrokenBlade is consistently getting kills in the laning phase, Golden Guardians will be in trouble, but if Hauntzer is comfortably farming and playing weak side, they have to like their chances. 

The Edge: Even

Jungle- TSM Spica vs. Golden Guardians Closer

If Golden Guardians are going to pull off the upset, it’s going to be through the play of Jungler, Closer. Closer is the kind of resource-heavy, dominant jungler usually associated with the LPL or the LEC. He is averaging an experience differential of 317 and a CS differential of 7.8 at 10 minutes over his rival junglers. Those numbers are only topped by the LCS’ other dominant jungler and spring split MVP– Cloud 9’s Blaber. That’s rarified air for Closer. His opponent, Spica, could not be more opposite. Spica is easily TSM’s weakest link  and averages the worst experience and CS differentials of any jungler in the LCS. To be fair to him, those numbers are partially due to the way TSM uses him as more like a second support player to their carry laners, but still the chasm between the junglers in those key statistics will be worrisome to TSM fans. If they win, Golden Guardians will find themselves typing “jungle difference” in /all chat at the end of this series. 

The Edge: Golden Guardians

Mid Lane- TSM Bjergsen vs. Golden Guardians Damonte

In some ways, the statistics of this matchup are irrelevant. If you ask even the most casual LCS fan: Who is the one player you want on your side in a must-win, backs against the wall 5 game playoff series? They will almost always answer Bjergsen. Since joining the league, he has easily been its most dominant and important mid laner and has shown no signs of slowing down this split.  He is still consistently getting ahead of the enemy mid laner, despite having arguably the worst jungler in the league to back him up.  His KDA (Kills-Deaths-Assists ratio)  of 6.5 is particularly impressive for a player on a team with multiple other carries like Doublelift and BrokenBlade. His opponent, Damonte, is a similar coin-flip type of player to BrokenBlade. In the games where he’s on, Damonte is really on. In the games where he’s off, Damonte is really off.  Damonte struggles to consistently get ahead of his opponents in the key categories of gold, experience, and cs where he averages deficits at 10 minutes. This lane matchup is very similar to the top in that one side has their solid, steady hand and the other has their wild card. I trust the steady hand of Bjergsen here.

The Edge: TSM

Bot Lane Duo- TSM Doublelift and Treatz vs. Golden Guardians FBI and Huhi

This matchup is a lot closer than a lot of folks think. FBI and Huhi have become a legitimate win condition for Golden Guardians this split. In fact, just going from raw statistics, you would give the edge to the GGS bot lane who are getting a +207 Gold differential at 10 minutes, a +52 XP differential, and a +7.7 CS differential onto FBI compared to TSM’s -67, +113, and +4.3 respectively on Doublelift. Games are not just played in the numbers though, as badly as sports bettors may want them to be. Doublelift’s history as a player who turns it up in the playoffs can not be ignored. When he wants to be, he is the greatest laner the LCS has ever seen. He used to routinely get the kind of advantages in lane that could snowball a game out of control. The meta-game has shifted his way just in time for playoffs as well. Two of his best champions, Caitlyn and Lucian, will be making their returns to pro play after long hiatuses in these playoffs. If Doublelift still has that player in him, you have to believe TSM has the slight edge here.

The Edge: Slight TSM

Team Stats

When I’m handicapping a LoL match after thinking through the lane-to-lane matchups, I want to know about three key statistics for a team: their gold spent percentage differential (GSPD), early game rating (EGR), and their Baron Percentage. 

The first and most important statistic here is the GSPD. GSPD measures how much team’s are beating or losing to their opponents by, think of it as the real plus minus or DVOA of LoL. GGS has a GSPD of 1.8% and TSM has a GSPD of 1.5%. That’s essentially a wash and could be heavily affected by one game. I think it’s worth noting that Golden Guardians have the better number there, but we’ll have to look elsewhere to see some real edges.

The next statistic–EGR– measures how much a team gets ahead on the early objectives of the game such as first kill, first drake, first tower, etc. Here we have a real mismatch with Golden Guardians on a 64.2 EGR compared to TSM’s 50.9. This difference largely comes to the aforementioned talent gap with the junglers. Closer and Golden Guardians like to go for early ganks and jungle invades with team compositions that are heavily favored in the early game. Spica and TSM see early game as a “survive and advance” stage of the game, often trying to go even in the early game and win in teamfights with late game focused team compositions. Golden Guardians will need to get meaningful leads in the early game to pull an upset here.

Finally and– for this matchup– most importantly, is the Baron percentage. If one thing has been consistent through the history of LoL, it’s that winning teams control the Baron buff. Forcing your opponent to fight at the Baron when you know you can win the fight remains one of the best ways to win a LoL match. Golden Guardians, despite getting out to the early game leads, only manages to get 48% of the Baron buffs in their games. This points to a clear disconnect for the team when it comes to transitioning early leads into wins. A quick study of the film on their games confirms this point. Their inexperience often shows in late game situations where you have to out-think, not just outplay your opponents. TSM controls 61% of the barons in their games. While not a particularly impressive number, it is where I think this series will be won for TSM. They just have significantly more experience at winning in late game situations. I like Golden Guardians to get far enough ahead in the early game to win at least one game in this Best of 5, but TSM’s control of the Baron will help them avoid the upset.

The Edge: TSM

The Picks

Over 3.5 Maps (-215) 2u

Like previously mentioned, I like Golden Guardians to get at least one game here. The biggest positional mismatch in this game is actually on their side. Closer is miles ahead of Spica. When he gets on to one of his favored champions and gets an early kill, I think he can carry GGS to a win or two. To get onto favored champions, Golden Guardians will want to be on the blue side of the map where they are 6-1 this split. They are actually the team with the biggest difference in record from when they are the blue side compared to when they are on the red side, which brings us to the next pick.

Golden Guardians Money Line on Map 2 (+150) 1u

TSM is the higher seed here which means they will have side selection in the first game of the series. I expect them to pick blue side where they are 7-3 this split. If they win game 1–which they will be heavily favored to do on blue side– then side selection for game 2 will go to Golden Guardians. With their blue side record, I think this is where Golden Guardians steals a game. It is also historically the most likely game for the underdog to win in a 5 game series.

Exact Result: TSM 3-1 (+260) 1u, TSM 3-2 (+370) 1u

I like two small plays on the exact results here knowing you’re guaranteed to lose one. These are the two most likely results to me and we have nice plus odds for both. There’s a world where Golden Guardians come out with their late game issues solved and pull off the full upset, but I think the more likely outcome is that they stick to what they do best by getting early game leads and steal a game or two while TSM out executes them late in the others to win the series.   

Victory 5 vs. Fun Plus Phoenix Breakdown

Welcome to the LPL playoffs baby! I think if you had told me before the split that Victory Five and Fun Plus Phoenix would be playing a playoff series and I would favor V5, I probably would have stopped gambling forever. Seriously, what an insane turnaround by this team. It’s not flukey either. They have beat multiple good teams that were playing their favored style, unlike E-star last split. I believe in Victory Five here, let’s break down why and how I’m going to bet on them by going through the lanes and then the team stats. 

Top Lane- V5 BiuBiu vs. FPX Gimgoon or Khan

I expect Fun Plus to play Gimgoon in at least the first two matches of this one, so we’re going to focus on how he matches up with BiuBiu. GimGoon actually has the top win rate of any of the players here at 69%, so some might think with him FPX is significantly improved. I’m not so sure. If you dive a little bit deeper, you see that GimGoon got to play in both the games against OMG and Dominus which were near auto-wins at that stage of the season. His win rate has more to do with the size of sample and strength of competition than any truly dominant play by him. The stats show this too.  GimGoon averages a -303 GD@10, a -147 XPD@10 and a -5.9 CSD@10 this season (and that includes the cupcake matchups previously discussed). That’s a pretty awful set of stats. For comparison, CLG’s Ruin, largely considered the worst Top laner in the LCS, averages -77, -50, and +1.9 differentials.  Top lane isn’t exclusively about the early advantages a player can get, but those are some serious deficits to put yourself into. V5’s BiuBiu, while never the standout star, averages solid advantages in those numbers with +85 GD10, +55XPD10, 0.6 CSD10. I don’t expect either of these teams to win the game through the top lane, but FPX could lose it there. I’m giving the edge to V5.

The Edge: V5

Jungle- FPX Tian vs. V5 WeiWei

I believe Tian is still one of the best junglers in the world, but the meta-game has shifted so far away from FPX’s preferred style of play that he does not look it anymore. I think that has more to do with the decline of the players around him, than any falling off from him. He still gets ahead in XP and CS over his opponents, but because him and Doinb can no longer team up for their signature dive his gold numbers have really suffered. With that said, WeiWei is just a better jungler right now. His +172 GD10, +271 XPD10 and +3.7 CSD10 are just absurd.  Perhaps even more impressive is his KDA of 5.9 and Kill Participation of 75.2%. WeiWei’s ability to set up objectives ahead of his opponents fits in perfectly with the current meta-game. 

The Edge: V5

Mid Lane- FPX Doinb vs. V5 Mole

Measuring Doinb by the traditional 10 minutes statistics has never really told the story of his worth. He is a unique laner whose true value lies outside of his lane. He will sacrifice cs, xp, and gold in his own lane to try and help his teammates get kills.  He has remained uniquely dominant in that way this split with a near 80% kill participation, the highest mark in the league. The question is: Is this the best way to play LoL anymore?  The answer seems almost definitely to be no. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the two teams best known for the mid lane ganker, Cloud9 and FPX, are struggling in the current meta-game. Playing with a more traditional control mage and a play-making support has become the optimal way to play, but FPX is holding onto the dream that their preferred style of play will come back. Doinb is still great at his role, but his role may just be irrelevant. His opponent, Mole, is a steady player who has had a few surprise pop-offs this split.  His role on V5 is to simply not lose too hard until the team can get into team fights where he excels. He averages small deficits in all the 10 minute statistics, but nothing so egregious that he becomes useless. Still, if given the choice between the player who tries not to lose his team the game and the player who tries to win, I’ll take the winner.

The Edge: FPX

Bot Lane Duo- FPX LWX and Crisp vs. V5 ppgod and Samd or y4

Weirdly, I don’t put much stock into the actual lane matchup here. LWX and Crisp are getting minimal leads on their opponents in lane and ppgod and Samd are averaging minor deficits. There’s a world where FPX gets a big enough lead through their bot side i to snowball the game, but largely I expect this to be farm and wait for team fights kind of lane. It’s there where I would give an edge to V5. Ppgod has been very good on engage-style supports this split and has stood out as a real playmaker. Crisp has done the exact opposite. He has had some real “WTF” moments this split that has had some people questioning if he’s even good enough anymore.

The Edge: Even 

Team Stats

 When you get into the team stats, it becomes clear that V5 is a team that understands how the game is played right now and FPX does not. First, V5’s GSPD of 2.9% is a respectable number that cements them as a legitimate contender, unlike the pretender numbers of E-star last split. FPX has a GSPD of -2.0%. That is one of the worst numbers of any team in playoffs across regions. It emphasizes what the film on FPX says: this team is winning narrowly and getting shit-stomped in their losses. That usually suggests some regression is coming in the playoffs. Some of the other teams that average near a -2.0% GSPD in the LPL are BilliBilli and OMG, who won 17 and 15 games compared to FPX’s 22. I think FPX is lucky to be in the playoffs.

If you look at Early Game Rating, V5 is again solidly ahead with a 58.6 compared to FPX’s 46.2. A lot of this accounted for in their first tower percentages where V5 is getting 56% of the First Towers and FPX is averaging a terrible 37%.   When teams can get the first tower, they set up vision on their opponents side of the map and usually have the advantage at the next objectives on that side of the map. The fact that FPX is getting so few of those in such an objective-heavy meta-game does not bode well for them.

Finally, FPX is just not getting enough Barons this split. I would have to dive deep into film to figure out why this is. I think part of it is that they’re often very behind at this stage of the game in this split. Either way their Baron Rate of 43% just ain’t gonna cut it against V5. V5 actually leads the league in Baron% at 65%. For such a dominant early game team that number really stands out.

The Edge: V5

The Picks

Victory Five +1.5 Games (-190) 3u

This is my largest position of the split. I am just trusting my process here. If you like FPX, you have to believe they have some other style or level  to go to in the playoffs that they have not shown at all this split. There’s no other justification for betting them besides experience. I’m trusting the numbers over experience this time.

Victory Five ML (+115) 2u

See above. There’s no way FPX should be favored here. I have V5 winning this near 65% of the time, +115 implies 46.5%.

V5 3-0 (+625) 0.5u, V5 3-1 (+425) 0.5u

4 and 3 game serieses are just more likely even in close ones like this, so if you like the dogs, get a little taste of these as well.

8/8 LoL betting breakdown

The LEC has officially lost its damn mind. This is the most parity I’ve seen in any league in a long time. They do not have a single dumpster fire team. It has been terrible to gamble on, but pretty awesome to watch. A lot of folks think the parity is showing the weakness of their top teams, my thinking is the exact opposite. Every team in the LEC knows how to win games when given the opportunity, that’s not something you can say about the other leagues. Have we seen Fnatic and G2 anywhere near their full strength yet? Definitely not, but I think the teams rising up from below them deserve some credit. Except Misfits, that team’s terrible. 

LPL

LNG ML vs. Dominus (-210) 1.5u,  LNG -1.5 (+145) 1u

LNG looked like a team playing for their jobs against LGD earlier this week. They actually tried to get on the front foot a couple times after some depressing serieses this split where they let their opponents do whatever they wanted. Xx and Flandre, in particular, looked eager to show they still belong in the LPL. With all that said, I think I would still like LNG if they lost. Incredibly, they dominate Dominus statistically. Their objective rates, GSPD, and GPR all have a meaningful gap with Dominus, despite them being easily the second worst team this split. That should tell you how bad Dominus is. I like LNG to get it done with jobs on the line.

 E-Star +1.5 Games vs. EDG (-165) 1.5u, E-star ML (+190) 1u

I couldn’t pass on one more opportunity to lose all my money on E-star. There’s a reason for this though: E-STAR HAS THE STATISTICS OF A PLAYOFF TEAM. I will die on this hill.  They have: the same GSPD as WE, the same Early Game Rating as JDG, and the same GD@15 and Dragon Rate as Suning. How do they keep losing? 

EDG, for their part, is also a good stats, bad record team who threw some big leads this split. This bet has more to do with my belief in some sort of positive regression coming for E-star, than a fade of EDG.

LPL/LCK Parlay

Damwon Gaming -1.5 Games vs. Seol Hae One,  DRX ML vs. Sandbox, Top Esports ML vs. WE (-140) 1u

I’m not going to insult anyone’s intelligence by talking through why DWG is going to 2-0 Seol Hae One. DRX is also in a huge mismatch here. It’s another one of those games where if you lined up the 10 players for a playground pickup game, every DRX player would be picked before Sandbox had one picked. So, that brings us to Top against WE.

Top still has the first seed in play here so I expect them to be fully motivated. When they are fully motivated, they should smash WE. WE’s try-to-survive and late game team fight style works against bad teams with laners who don’t get regularly ahead. That’s not TOP. Top has some of the best laners in LoL backed by a very aggressive jungler in Karsa. I expect TOP to smash this matchup, but have got burned on my expectations in the LPL this month so I did not play the -1.5.

LEC

SK ML vs. Origen (-110) 2u

Origen has completely forgotten how to win games. The Origen of old wins their game today, 99 times out of 100. They had solid teamfighting tools. They had a Gold lead at 15. They were first to multiple objectives. It was a classic Origen win, but then they lost. It was as if they completely froze with the lead. Their decisiveness went completely out the window and Nukeduck had a couple of headscratchers. This team looks done. I would expect some pretty big changes for them in the offseason.

SK remains a good team with good stats. They played a competitive game with G2 today that could have gone either way. I honestly could not believe they were the underdog here.

Mad Lions ML vs. Rogue (-130) 2u

Rogue is a bit of a pretender. They are very good at their style of LOL, but kind of collapse when their opponent’s don’t let them dictate the pace of a game. Mad Lions has never let their opponents dictate the pace of a game in their history. MAD will go down fighting in every situation. They are basically the anti-Rogue.

In games where Larssen can’t get massively ahead, Rogue has struggled this split. I would not count on him getting ahead of Humanoid, who has an 8.6 CSD@10 and 218 XPD@10. Rogue doesn’t have a lot of other win conditions. I expect Mad to know this and to target Larssen heavily in this match.

LCS

Liquid vs. Immortals Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

Liquid gets first blood at 6 minutes. Liquid gets first drake at 8 minutes. Liquid gets first baron at 20 minutes. Liquid wins game 10-2 at 26 minutes. This is the script of every TL game against bad teams. I don’t expect the writers to be changing it up this week.

Golden Guardians ML vs. Evil Geniuses (-140) 1u, GGS vs. EG Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

The guys over at The Gold Card Podcast graciously featured this pick on their new “Listener Pick of the Week” segment and if you read my blog, but don’t follow them and listen to their podcast what are you doing? 

My reasoning here is simple: Evil Geniuses are cooked. They play more like a solo queue team with every member having a different opinion on what they should do. Their first dragon fight in their game against FLY last week was one of the worst managed things I’ve seen in pro LoL. Everybody on this team needs a retirement or a fresh start elsewhere because this ain’t it. They are comically bad for how good they look on paper. Golden Guardians played a closer than it looked game with a very good TSM team tonight and I came away even more impressed with them. They will easily be able to take advantage of EG’s miscommunications.

I like the over here because EG is giving up insane totals in their losses. Their deaths per loss is at 18 this split. That’s more like an LPL team. The totals in their losses average 28. 21.5 should be an easy over.

8/7 LEC and LCS Breakdown

I can not wait to be all over Damwon Gaming on the Worlds futures markets. Every person who pays attention to these things is talking about it and the guys over at The Gold Card Podcast  talked extensively about it, but this team is a true statistical outlier. Not like a 2020 statistical outlier, like the most singularly dominant team in LoL history kind of statistical outlier. I mentioned in my LCK breakdown that I thought they weren’t quite that good. I’m not so sure anymore. Canyon is becoming the kind of dominant player who defines seasons. 2018, it was TheShy, 2019, it was Doinb, I think 2020 is Canyon’s year. His Karthus is so good it should be illegal. 

On the other side, RNG just took a dump on what should have been a very profitable day. I will not miss that team come playoff time. They probably did me a favor by getting themselves eliminated so I can’t bet on them. On to the LEC and LCS..

LEC

Vitality vs. Rogue Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u, Rogue ML in a parlay

Rogue doesn’t lose to teams like Vitality. In fact, the only teams Rogue has lost to that are below them in the standings this season are G2 and SK–two teams that often play early game focused compositions and put pressure on Rogue’s excellent laners. That’s not Vitality’s game. They’re more like a diet Rogue type of team, who take what their opponents give them and can finish games when given leads. Rogue is way better than them at that particular style. 

I expect Rogue to stomp here. Rogue stomps are some of the lowest kill totals in the league. In their games against bottom 4 teams, only 1 has gone over 20 kills in a weird outlier against Schalke where they got a little behind in the early game. 

Origen vs. XL Over 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

There’s a chance that both of these teams play tight because they desperately need it for playoffs. I’m leaning the other way. I think both teams will be eager to show they belong in the playoffs and can play a different style from what they’ve shown. It is also as close as a match can get statistically. I like overs in close matches. Close matches tend to trade kill for kill and I could see that happening here. Neither of these teams has been particularly efficient with leads making up the 7th and 8th spot in the league in Mid-to-late rating. If you have game time spreads at your book, I’d go over there too.

Fnatic ML vs. Schalke 04 (-190) 2u

Gillius was great last week. We’ve seen this before. His playstyle can still catch teams off-guard. It won’t catch the vets of FNC off-guard. This is just a don’t overthink it spot. In any other season, Fnatic would be a -300 favorite against this Schalke team. They are better all over the map. Even in the midst of this rough season, Fnatic still has one of the best Early Game Ratings in the LEC at 50.3. In their two upsets last weekend, Schalke was able to win through Gilius’ aggressive early game jungling, he shouldn’t be able to do that here. I still believe in Fnatic. They need this win.

Mad Lions- Rogue ML Parlay (-110) 1u

I already talked about the Rogue stomp, so let’s take a look at the Mad Lions- Misfits matchup. I do think Mad Lions have been a little overrated all season. Their style is kind of custom-made for Best of 1s where they can surprise their opponents with quicker reads on the meta and weird picks. But Misfits suck. They are the worst GSPD team in the LEC. Their laners have been falling behind regularly this split with negative CS differentials and Gold differentials. DanDan still doesn’t really look like an LEC-quality player, Febiven might not be good anymore, and Razork has been a total coinflip. MAD Lions should be able to get right pretty easily here.

LCS

Dignitas vs. Cloud 9 Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

Cloud 9 needs to kick someone’s ass. It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve seen that. They used to get unbelievably ahead in lanes and then use those leads to kill their opponents repeatedly on their side of the maps. Dignitas need to show they can still do something. The past few games against top teams, they have just slowly conceded into their base. I don’t think Dardoch can be happy with that. I expect Dignitas to draft a full early game composition in this one and keep it close early on and then get smashed later on. That was near the exact script of their first game with C9 that had 31 kills. Give me the over.