LPL/LCK Week 1 Betting Breakdown

Lol is back! Perhaps more importantly, LoL betting and DFS is back! The sweating as I lock in yet another IG stack, the waking up at 4 AM wondering how ppgod is doing, the guaranteed income of just parlaying favorites in the LCK has all returned and I wouldn’t trade it for anything. This weekend we will have three leagues running and by next weekend we will have all four major leagues back in full swing. 

So, on that front, a little housekeeping. For LPL/LCK I will be doing a weekly betting breakdown for my favorite bets of the week and a recap of the preceding week like the one you are reading now right here on lcspicks.com. For the LCS/LEC, I will be doing a “First Look” with betting talk on Tuesdays over at linemovement.com. Then, for LEC and LCS DFS I will be doing a DFS youtube show with theesportsdepartment.com with a couple of sharp DFS players which you can get along with a myriad of other betting analysis and DFS Projections for all the big esports by subscribing with the code: IEDGE for 10% off. This blog is entirely for fun and done in my free time and will remain so, but the other two things actually provide me a little income. So, if that is something you want to help me with, please click on those.

With that out of the way, let’s get into some LPL and LCK action. 

I will be writing this article weekly, just looking at a few of my favorite value spots or games, not necessarily breaking down every game. If you wanna follow someone who breaks down every game in depth, check out Gelati with The Esports Department.

LPL

Suning (-240) vs. RNG (+196)

Date: 1/14

Suning started out their season with a 2-0 sweep of Top Esports. That was first, closer than that scoreline suggests, and second less impressive now that we saw Top also lose to Rogue Warriors in what appears to be a little championship hangover. Still, Suning’s demise in this meta feels like it may have been overstated. We are still in the powerfarming Graves jungle meta that made it possible for SofM to carry this team to the World semifinal. As long as we’re there this team has a chance against anyone in the world

With that said, this line is insane. RNG started their season with a 2-0 asskicking of TT who some analysts predicted to be significantly improved this season. Even if you think TT is not good (I do), RNG did exactly what a top team should do: take care of business. Cryin and Wei are back to the form that had E-star at the top of the table in 2020, Xiaohu, despite some hiccups, showed enormous potential as a carry top laner, and their bot lane was just plain solid. I would have bet on RNG last year at this number when they were worse and Suning was better. The game should be a coinflip. This is an easy one. Take the RNG value. 

The Picks: RNG +1.5 (-176) 2u, RNG ML (+196) 1u

Rogue Warriors (-235) vs. Estar (+165)

Date: 1/15

I am going with a theme here: anyone who has beat Top Esports is going to be overrated by the books. That team is a mess right now and I’m not sure beating them says much about your long term prospects as a serious LPL contender. This is priced as if Rogue Warriors is a serious LPL contender.

Although, Haro was impressive in his debut, Rogue Warriors were pretty fortunate to beat TES. They were behind in gold in every game and depended on Top making some pretty bad mistakes to win. I am glad they showed they can still take advantage of mistakes and I will be backing them as dogs at times this year for sure, but there’s no way I can back them as this kind of favorite.

Estar,  hung in there with an improved BilliBilli gaming team, and the H4cker/irma duo looks like they could cause some legitimate problems this year. Rat and Shiauc also looked at least league average in the bot lane. This is another mispriced coinflip. Take the dog.

The Picks: Estar +1.5 (-190) 2u, Estar ML (+165) 1u

Rare Atom (+230) vs. Top Esports (-325)

Date: 1/15

Top Esports is going to right the ship at some point. They are just way too talented to continue to lose to what projects to be middle of the table LPL teams. You could make a credible argument that they have the best player in the league at his position in every position. But I don’t think they’re going to get right with a 2-0 of Rare Atom.

In fact, I project Rare Atom to be better than both the teams they’ve lost to so far. Vici’s stats to end the year were that of a legitimate contender in the LPL, not a middling team. From Patch 10.13 on, they were close to Suning and IG’s level on GSPD on oracleselixir.com  and should only improve upon last season with another year of continuity. Until TES has a few days off to work on some new picks and flexibility in the draft. I am going to keep betting on their opponents to win at least a game.

The Picks: Rare Atom +1.5 Games (-140) 1u

LCK

Afreeca ( -135) vs. DRX (+100)

Date:1/14

Last year this would have been one of the locks of the year in favor of DRX. 2021 DRX is not the beast they once were. The only piece of the Chovy-Pyosik-Keria core that remains on the team is arguably the worst piece, Pyosik. He is certainly a top LCK jungler, but that should tell you just how good those pieces were. Their replacements are almost entirely unknown prospects. DRX has had a history of finding some of the best young players in Korea, but still it’s hard to have the same expectations for DRX this year. 

My bet in this game has more to do with my expectations for Afreeca though who went almost exactly the opposite direction as DRX. They took the already solid core that upset T1 last year and added a veteran bot lane to shore up the team. To me, that’s the kind of move for a team that has real aspirations to make a deep playoff run. If that’s the case, they’re going to have to beat teams like DRX this year that project in the LCK middle. This is all gut because we have not seen much of these teams yet, but my gut says Afreeca takes care of business.

The Picks: Afreeca ML (-135) 1u, Afreeca -1.5 Games (+210) 0.5u

T1 (+275) vs. Damwon (-425) 

Date: 1/15

This is the only time this season you will see T1 at this kind of number. Now in all caps, bold, and italics: THIS IS THE ONLY TIME THIS SEASON YOU WILL SEE T1 at this kind of number. T1 just dispatched the Chovy-led HLE that lots of folks had high expectations for with their “subs”(or their main roster, who even knows anymore?). They are back and one of the best teams in the world. Damwon Gaming is the reigning world champions with a new top laner. There’s nothing new to say about these two teams. It’s a clash of two of the best teams in the world and priced as if T1 plays in the LCS. You have to take T1, even though the book is begging you to do it. 

The Picks: T1 +1.5 (-120) 2u, T1 ML (+275) 1u, T1 -1.5 (+700) 0.5u

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: