8/28 LoL Playoffs Betting Breakdown

LGD(+142) vs. Suning (-182)

  • Top SNG Bin vs. LGD Langx                                                                 The Edge: Suning
  • Mid-SNG Angel vs. LGD Xiye                                                                   The Edge: LGD
  • Jungle-SNG SofM vs. LGD Peanut                                                           The Edge: LGD
  • Bot lane duo-SNG Swordart and Huanfeng vs. LGD Kramer and Mark   The Edge: Even

Suning and LGD played a clown fiesta earlier this week that Suning 3-0’d. Neither team was playing anywhere near their peak and it’s difficult to know what to take away from it. The books adjusted by nearly 70 points in Suning’s favor. That feels pretty heavy handed to me.

The talent in this one is pretty close, but I want to key in on one matchup that I think puts this in LGD’s favor: the jungle. SofM has been hyped up as one of the premier junglers of the LPL. I don’t rate him quite that high because of questions I have about his champion pool. He has played a lot of Jarvan and Olaf this split, two champions I would not put in the S tier of Junglers right now. He also doesn’t have a single game on Peanut’s signature champ, Nidalee. If SofM can’t seriously contest Peanut’s carry junglers like Graves, Nidalee, and Kindred, he will dominate this series.

When Peanut played Kindred against JDG, he was so good at it that JDG picked it up for Kanavi in the next game. I don’t think Suning has that luxury (or at least they haven’t shown it).They also can’t count on their lanes to consistently win like JDG can. Angel is probably the worst player left in the LPL playoffs. Peanut can feast on players like that.

For as much as LoL is a team game and we spend time talking about all the lanes, the team with the best mid-jungle duo wins a heavy percentage of the time. I like LGD’s mid-jungle duo here.

The Picks: LGD ML (+142) 1u, LGD 3-1 (+450) 0.5u, LGD 3-0 (+650) 0.5u

Gen. G (-1233) vs. Afreeca (+629)

  • Top- Gen. G Rascal vs. Afreeca Kiin                                                The Edge: Gen.G
  • Mid- Gen. G BDD vs. Afreeca Fly             The Edge: Gen. G
  • Jungle- Gen. G Clid vs. Afreeca Spirit or Dread The Edge: Gen. G
  • Bot lane duo- Gen.G Ruler and Life vs. Afreeca  Mystic and Ben     The Edge: Gen.G

Here it is: Afreeca beating T1 was a total fluke. There was a confluence of factors: T1 not playing like themselves and overplaying situations, a nice series from Afreeca’s Kiin who is a legitimately elite player, a bad series from T1’s top side, the series only being 3 games, and T1 perhaps looking past Afreeca a little bit. I think there’s a lot more to take from every other Afreeca series against the top 3 in the LCK where they have lost every game.

This is a talent canyon. GenG has better players at every position and the only one that is particularly close is the top lane (arguably the least important position). Gen. G has had a totally new energy about them after the Mid Season Cup. They’re no longer the slow, boring team they once were. They are overwhelming their opponents with aggressive, decisive play. In the teams’ two matchups this split, Gen.G has beat Afreeca by an average of 15 kills across 4 games. That is utter dominance, not the kind of thing you can turn around in a matter of weeks. 

Afreeca still has not settled on one jungler because none of their junglers have been able to consistently perform at an acceptable level. Clid will smash whoever his opponent ends up being here. He is still one of the best junglers in the world. I don’t think Afreeca gets a game here, so I’m playing the under 3.5 maps. At some books, the Under 3.5 number is better than the -2.5, so look for that. 

The Picks: Under 3.5 Maps (+122) 1u

Mad Lions (-138) vs. Schalke 04 (+145)

  • Top- Mad Orome vs. S04 Odoamne                                                       The Edge: Even
  • Mid- Mad Humanoid vs. S04 Abbedage                                                 The Edge: Even
  • Jungle- Mad Shadow vs. S04 Gillius                                                     The Edge: Mad
  • Bot lane duo- Mad Kaiser and Carzzy vs. S04 Neon and Dreams         The Edge: Mad

I have faded the S04 miracle run every step of the way and paid for it. With this in mind today, I searched for reasons not to hammer Mad Lions. I ran stats with a heavier weight on recent performance. I watched their end of season game. I speed-ran through the teams’ playoffs series. It all brought me back to this: I should hammer Mad Lions.

The top lane matchup is a wash here with two of the better top laners in the league. Both players are comfortable fitting into whatever role the team asks him to do and will not lose the game on his own. I expect both of them to be put pretty heavily on tank/Gangplank duty in this one.

Mid is another toss up in my opinion, but could easily decide the series. Mad lions are at their best when Humanoid is the main carry. In the early season, he was the best player in the LEC. If Mad Lions can unlock that version of him again, they will win this series. The problem is: Abbedage has played out of his mind on this run. He has been Schalke’s main carry when they are at their best. I have a feeling whoever wins the mid lane, wins the series handily.

I like Mad Lions to win the Mid lane matchup through their jungle difference. You can trust that this is just how good Gillius is now, I do not. He has played better and fell off worse before. I think Mad Lions are smart enough to target him in this series. SK tried, but didn’t have the talent or preparation (why were they so surprised by Hecarim?), to beat S04 this way. There are some serious holes in Gillius’ champion pool, particularly the adc junglers, that have yet to be exposed. Mad Lions will expose them.

Finally, I looked at the stats and put heavier weights on later season form, Mad Lions are still the better statistical team. They have better gold differences, objective rates, early game, and on and on. I will take my “L” if Schalke come out and dominate this, but I’m still just not buying it.

The Picks: Mad Lions ML (-138) 2u, Mad Lions -1.5 Maps (+170) 1u, Mad Lions -2.5 Maps (+497) 0.5u , Mad Over 13.5 Kills on every map (-135) 1u each

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