8/21 LoL betting breakdown

Tough one today. I thought C9 could just flip the switch come playoff time, but it just didn’t happen. I don’t think it’s coincidental that their downfall and FPX’s downfall have corresponded. The two teams preferred style of LoL is just no longer the best way to play anymore and neither has found the answer to the “so now what?” question. C9 tried to give all the carry power to Zven in this series and he just came up short. I think this team is in real danger here against an improving EG, but that’s for another day. If you’re looking for my LCS betting thoughts for tomorrow check me out here with linemovement.com.

Seol Hae One Prince (+184) vs. Team Dynamics (-225)

I’m going to keep this brief because of that old saying about not saying anything when you have nothing nice to say. I have nothing nice to say about SHO. I recognize that they almost beat DRX in their last series, but DRX is solidly in the IG-esque trolling portion of their season. I would not take a lot away from that series other than SHO will allow teams to beat themselves if they try really hard to.

Outside of that series, Seol Hae One is the worst statistical team in LoL. Their GSPD of -11.9% rivals last year’s V5 and Vitality teams that won 5 games combined. It’s just awful. The team just consistently loses everywhere on the map.  If I tried to go lane for lane in this series, I would have Team Dynamics favored everywhere. This is truly a “team diff”.

Team Dynamics, after their hot start, is coming back to reality. Their games against middle-of-the-pack teams, despite being mostly losses, have gone to 3 games. I think their record is a little unfair to their quality. They should be able to take care of business and build some confidence against SHO.

The Picks: Team Dynamics ML (-225) 1u, Team Dynamics -1.5 (+160) 0.5u

SK Gaming (+190) vs. FC Schalke 04 (-275)

When I saw this line, my jaw hit the floor. I am still coming to terms with it. I handicapped this before the lines were out and I was looking to make a decent-sized play on SK at around -125. So, when I realized I was going to get that on +1.5, well you’ll see.

Schalke made an amazing miracle run to the end the season and looked revitalized by having Gilius back in the lineup. He was absolutely on fire to end the season. We’ve seen that before from Gilius and then seen him turn back into a pumpkin. A lot of their run centered around getting Gilius onto Lee Sin. His playmaking on that champion completely changed the game for S04. The issue is SK’s jungler–Trick–is also a Lee Sin specialist. He will be confident trying to match his opponent on this champion or they can do something that no one else has done in this run: ban Gilius out. If they force Gilius into the Sett, Volibear, Kindred area, I think S04 is in big trouble.

The rest of the map is even or SK-favored in my opinion. Mid lane is a wash(Abbedage has run very hot lately). Top lane is slightly SK-favored for me. Finally, the bot lane has a large talent gap. Crownshot and Limit have been beating up on even the best bot lanes in the league. Their GD10, XPD10, and CSD10 are best in the league or near best in the league despite the team being .500. Schalke’s bot lane–even with Neon– is solidly lower half in those stats. It is partially because Schalke’s focus on the top side of the map, but if they try that against SK, they will lose. Trick loves to gank the bot to set up Crownshot or himself to carry the game.  

If you look at season-long team stats (knowing that this includes multiple iterations of Schalke), it is pretty clearly SK favored. They are ahead of Schalke in GSPD, MLR, and Baron%. The one point of concern will be the early game. SK is near the bottom of the table in the early game where Schalke has been above average in Early Game Rating. Again, I think that’s partially due to Gillius’ success on Lee Sin which I don’t expect him to be playing in this series. Put simply, I think SK should be favored. This will be my biggest spot of the year so far.

The Picks: SK + 1.5 Maps (-120) 4u, SK ML (+190) 3u, SK -1.5 (+400) 0.5u, SK -2.5 (+1100) 0.5u

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