8/16 LoL betting breakdown

I hope for my betting sake that the LCS maintains this playoff format, but for the quality of play this has got to go. Dignitas did not belong anywhere near a playoff game. Everyone who watches the league could have told you that, but still there they were. TSM actually played pretty poorly, but never even really had to sweat in this series. When people talk about the dearth of talent in North American LoL, they are talking about Dignitas. Just terrible.

Although the V5-SNG series was a 3-1, it was very close. I think if they play that series a hundred times each team wins 50 of them. We just turned out to be on the wrong side of the coin today. Suning played slightly better than I expected, but V5 losing was always well within the likely range of outcomes.

The LCK is as steady as ever. Afreeca beats a bottom half team, Damwon sweeps everyone, and Seol Hae beats no one. It’s refreshing after the constant, seemingly random upset pain in the LEC and LPL this split. 

Invictus Gaming vs. LGD

  • Top- IG Theshy vs  LGD Langx                                                              The Edge: IG
  • Jungle- IG Ning vs. LGD  Peanut                                                           The Edge: LGD
  • Mid- IG Rookie vs. SNG Angel                                                               The Edge: IG
  • Bot Duo-  IG Baolan and Puff vs. LGD Mark and Kramer                     The Edge: IG

I truly believe that IG has a talent advantage on every team in the World. Theshy and Rookie’s laning numbers are absolutely absurd. I mean look at this. To be consistently getting those kinds of leads against pro players at 10 minutes is ridiculous. Their control over the laning phase of the game is only matched by themselves in previous eras. That era was when they were one of the best teams of all time. There’s some meta-game shifts that look like we may be headed back towards that era. 

First, the carry top has returned. We saw BiuBiu play Lucian to pretty great effect this morning.  If he can dominate the lane like that on Lucian, what will Theshy do with this champ back in the meta? Langx has to shudder at the thought. Even if he’s forcing Lucian bans, there are plenty of other carry champions that have become viable in the top lane like Fiora, Hecarim, or the ever steady, Gangplank. There’s a serious Theshy redemption arc brewing.

Second, Rookie looks like he wants the best player in the world status back from Knight. He has been absolutely terrifying on Orianna and Zoe this split. Those two champions have started to define the playoff meta. If he’s on Zoe,  a champ that has a 56% win rate in the LPL, I think the game is pretty much over.

The one position where I gave LGD the edge is in the Jungle. I’m not sure it will matter in this series. Peanut has been thriving on his laners getting ahead and having the ability to go for aggressive invades and dives. I don’t think LGD laners will be able to get ahead at all in this series. What does Peanut become when he has to help out losing lanes? We’re about to find out.

IG has always had dominant talent though, it is in their macro execution and team play where they faltered last split. That too has started to clean up. After having a gold spent deficit last split, they are now the 3rd best team in the league at +3.8% in that metric. LGD is a +1.1%. Also after struggling to put the appropriate emphasis on map objectives in spring, IG is taking 59% of the barons this split. The stats aside, IG has looked to be taking the game more seriously again. When that happens, no one can beat them. I’m putting my trust back into Invictus Gaming, I understand if you can’t. 

The picks: IG -1.5 Games (-145) 2u, IG 3-0 (+250) 1u

100 Thieves vs. Evil Geniuses

  • Top- 100T Ssumday vs. EG Huni                                                            The Edge: 100T
  • Jungle- 100T Contractz vs. EG Svenskeren                                            The Edge: 100T
  • Mid- 100T Ryoma vs. EG Goldenglue                                                     The Edge: Even
  • Bot Duo-  100T CodySun and Poome vs. EG Bang and Zeyzal              The Edge: EG

Here’s the problem for Evil Geniuses: Huni thinks he’s Theshy when he’s a bit more like Theantishy. His laning differentials are some of the worst in the league, averaging a deficit in gold, XP and CS at 10 minutes, but for some reason EG will draft for him like he’s peak Smeb. They’re in big trouble if they do that against 100T. Sssumday is a legitimate solo carry and has been one since he entered the LCS. He averages gold and experience differentials that rival the best top laners in the world.  A lot of what I talked about with Theshy could be applied to Ssumday here as well.

EG has a definite edge in the bot lane. Bang really came through in EG’s two wins yesterday and they will need him to do so again if they’re going to win this one. CodySun and Poome are fine players, but will struggle against the former world champ. Bang’s success centered around one champion in their first series: Senna. If I can recognize that, I’m sure that 100T’s coaching staff can recognize that. I would be looking to do whatever I can to keep Bang off Senna.

A lot of folks were encouraged by EG’s performance in game 3 and game 4 yesterday, I was not. Their win in game 3 was relatively legitimate, although I think there were some problems with the FLY draft. Then, Flyquest should win game 4 a lot of the time if Solo does not decide to throw the game. If you let Huni get confident and comfortable, he can beat you and Solo played very disrespectfully in that game. Honestly, I felt like Flyquest got a little disrespectful in the draft phase in games 3 and 4 and easily won again in game 5 when they wanted to. 100 Thieves are the dogs here and will not be taking anything for granted.

The team stats have these two neck and neck with little edges for 100 Thieves that have become much bigger edges since they revamped their roster. 100 Thieves are 6-6 with their roster swap, EG is 4-8. 100T has a GSPD of +3.8%, EG has a -2.9%. 100T takes 56% of Barons, Eg takes 13%! If I were making the odds for this one, I would have 100T favored. We have to take big value when we can get it. 

The Picks: 100T +1.5 (-135) 3u, 100T ML (+165) 2u,   

LCK

Once the LCK gets into the playoffs I will have a lot more to say about it and I think there will be a lot of interesting spots. But I don’t think anyone is reading a breakdown on why DRX is going to 2-0 Seol Hae One and Gen. G is going to 2-0 Hanwa. So, here’s another “that makes sense” LCK parlay

The Pick: Gen. G and DRX -1.5 Parlay (-175) 1u

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: