8/15 LoL betting breakdown

Yesterday I wrote entirely about how I liked the talent of LGD better than WE and went through their superior stats and then still ended up betting on WE. Not going to be doing that again. Flyquest played pretty disrespectfully in game 3 and 4, a bit of a bad beat there. The lines for these playoffs have felt pretty soft so far and have had some large moves towards the correct side.  One line I will tell you I’m already on in a very large way for next week is SK ML against S04. I bet it at +195, but it’s already down to +180. I expect that to keep going down because I believe SK should be favored. Before we get there though, let’s look at tomorrow.

Victory 5 vs. Suning Gaming

  • Top- V5 BiuBiu vs  SNG. Bin                                                                   The Edge: Suning
  • Jungle- V5 WeiWei vs. SNG  SofM                                                         The Edge: V5
  • Mid- V5 Mole vs. SNG Angel                                                                   The Edge: Even
  • Bot Duo-  V5 ppgod and SamD vs. SNG SwordArt and Huanfeng         The Edge: V5

I honestly can’t believe that this opened with Victory 5 as the dogs. There’s still plenty of value on V5 at its current coinflip status. That starts with just raw talent.  Take the name plates away and V5 has better performing players everywhere, save for top lane. V5’s bot lane, specifically, should  easily be able to get ahead of SwordArt and Huanfeng. They took full advantage of the underperforming Crisp in the FPX series. We’ve got another underperforming veteran support for them to pick on here. SwordArt has been pretty bad this split and, in my estimation, looks like his career may be over soon.  WeiWei is the rare kind of jungler that can get so far ahead by himself that it can make it difficult for their opponents to come back.  Finally, if you let Mole have Zoe, you’re just going to lose. V5 just has more ways to win than SNG.

The stats have these teams about as even as two teams can get, with small edges towards V5 across the board, especially in early game indicators. However, their results against top teams could not be more opposite. SNG were 2-0’d by IG, JDG, and TES and never looked particularly close with those teams. V5 beat both TES and JDG and went into a 2-1 with IG. This team keeps rising to the occasion. Their ability to win games from losing positions against FPX has me convinced they are going to Worlds. That starts by beating Suning. 

The picks: V5 ML (+106) 2u, V5 -1.5 (+170) 1u, V5 -2.5 (+594) 0.5u

TSM vs. Team Dignitas

  • Top- TSM BrokenBlade vs  Dig Lourlo                                                    The Edge: TSM
  • Jungle- TSM Spica vs. Dig Dardoch                                                        The Edge: Even
  • Mid- TSM Bjergsen vs. Dig Fenix                                                            The Edge: TSM
  • Bot Duo-  TSM Doublelift and Treatz vs. Dig Johnsun and Aphromoo    The Edge: Even

Dignitas doesn’t belong in a playoff match. I would argue that maybe only Johnsun will be playing in the LCS next split. The mid lane gap in this matchup is as big as it gets in professional play. Fenix against Bjergsen is like when Federer or Nadal plays one of those poor guys in the early rounds of Wimbledon. There is no comparing the players. Strangely, Dignitas do have two lanes where they have to like their chances to go even. TSM’s bot lane was shockingly bad in their first playoff series and that is Dig’s strength. Then, the jungle matchup is a matchup of TSM’s two most recent junglers. Neither is a particularly impressive player. 

I’m giving TSM a full mulligan on yesterday for this series. They got completely outthought in multiple drafts and then Doublelift pretty clearly lost his mind after game 1. Dignitas is not capable of that kind of play in my opinion. The only way they win a game is if TSM beat themselves again. Bjergsen won’t let them. The stats are very clear: TSM should be massive favorites. They have a +2.0% GSPD compared to Dignitas -3.3%. Gaps of 5+% in that statistic usually means, especially on opposite sides of zero, the game is a serious mismatch. TSM should also control the Baron here. They average 56% of Barons compared to Dignitas’ terrible 28%. I was concerned by TSM’s loss yesterday. I think they will be upset again in these playoffs, but not by Dig.

The Picks: TSM -1.5 (-200) 2u, TSM 3-0 (+145) 1u

LCK

I’m just going to keep playing what makes sense in the LCK. It is the one league in the world where you can pretty much count on what you’ve seen so far holding. Their favorites typically win and 2-0. What makes sense on this slate is two things: Damwon 2-0s Team Dynamics and Afreeca continues to beat up the bottom half teams against Sandbox. So I’m going with the “that makes sense” parlay here.

The Pick: AF ML and Damwon -1.5 Parlay (-141) 1u

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