8/14 LoL Betting Breakdown

V5 is legit. There were multiple moments in that series in which you would think “Uh oh. This is where the veterans of FPX out shotcall the kids of V5”, but then V5 outplayed them every time. It’s not like this was particularly bad or off-meta play from FPX. They tried to play their game and just got straight up beat. With that said, take a look at the line for V5 vs. Suning. Get in on that now. The less said about the TSM series, the better. I’ll take a look at the academy lines again tomorrow and probably release something on Twitter for that too, but let’s get into the playoff matchups. 

LGD vs. Team World Elite

  • Top-  Langx vs. Morgan      Advantage: LGD
  • Mid-Teacherma vs. xiye     Advantage: LGD
  • Jungle- Beishang vs. Peanut  Advantage: Even
  • Bot Duo- Killua and Kramer vs. Missing and Jiumeng  Advantage: WE

As you can see, I like the talent of LGD better than WE. I like the talent of a lot of teams more than WE, but that doesn’t change the fact that this team just keeps winning. They especially beat teams like LGD who will beat themselves. Their “try to survive and make it to teamfights” style can be difficult for teams like LGD who are known to throw a game or two late. In the stats, these two are pretty close to a coinflip. LGD has a +1% GSPD where WE has an even 0%. LGD has the edge in the early game with a 53.3 rating over WE’s 48.3, but when it goes late WE has the edge with a 6.7 MLR over LGD’s 3.5. Both teams take around 55% of Barons in their games. There’s no significant edges in this one. So I’m going to take the dogs, WE. I think this should be a lot closer to an esports odds coinflip of -115. +135 is just way too much plus money for either team to get in this series.

The Picks: WE ML (+135) 1.5u, WE -1.5 Maps (+275) 1u

Flyquest vs. Evil Geniuses

  • Top- Solo vs. Huni   Advantage: FLY
  • Mid- Powerofevil vs. GoldenGlue Advantage: FLY
  • Jungle- Santorin vs. Svenskeren Advantage: FLY
  • Bot Duo- Wildturtle and Ignar vs. Bang and Zeyzal Advantage: Even

This one’s a lot more clear cut to me than the series in the LPL. Flyquest has the talent edge in every single lane besides bot where I rated them even. Bang is a better player than Wildturtle, but Ignar is a better player than Zeyzal, couple that with the fact that Flyquest’s bot lane has actual synergy and is usually on the same page, we’ll call it a wash. Regardless, Evil Geniuses has shown no desire to win through the bot side this split and that would be a pretty big shake up to their playstyle to make in one week, so I’m not sure the game will even be won on that side of the map in this one. 

Flyquest’s true strength is in their team play. They always understand their compositions, know what they want to do next, and show trust in their teammates to perform in their roles. That is Evil Geniuses downfall. If EG do not get serious advantages in the laning phase, they almost always completely fall apart in the team stages. I’ve broken it down a million times before, but this team is just not on the same page. That’s the kind of team Flyquest feasts on. If we go into my favored statistical indicators as well, Fly is also just miles ahead. Their GSPD is +3.3% compared to Evil Geniuses’ 0.8% ( a number that has gotten much worse since their roster swaps). Their EGR is 51.6 and EG’s is 48.3. Finally and most importantly, they control 68% of the Barons in their games where EG averages a putrid 33%. I think we’re headed for another  sweep in the LCS.

The Picks:  Flyquest ML (-245) 2u, Flyquest -1.5 (-110) 1.5u, Flyquest -2.5 (+273) 1u

DRX -1.5 vs. HLE and KT -1.5 vs. SHO Parlay (Even) 1u

HLE and Seol Hae One are historically bad teams in the LCK, I will be betting them to get swept the rest of the way.

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