The LEC has officially lost its damn mind. This is the most parity I’ve seen in any league in a long time. They do not have a single dumpster fire team. It has been terrible to gamble on, but pretty awesome to watch. A lot of folks think the parity is showing the weakness of their top teams, my thinking is the exact opposite. Every team in the LEC knows how to win games when given the opportunity, that’s not something you can say about the other leagues. Have we seen Fnatic and G2 anywhere near their full strength yet? Definitely not, but I think the teams rising up from below them deserve some credit. Except Misfits, that team’s terrible.
LNG ML vs. Dominus (-210) 1.5u, LNG -1.5 (+145) 1u
LNG looked like a team playing for their jobs against LGD earlier this week. They actually tried to get on the front foot a couple times after some depressing serieses this split where they let their opponents do whatever they wanted. Xx and Flandre, in particular, looked eager to show they still belong in the LPL. With all that said, I think I would still like LNG if they lost. Incredibly, they dominate Dominus statistically. Their objective rates, GSPD, and GPR all have a meaningful gap with Dominus, despite them being easily the second worst team this split. That should tell you how bad Dominus is. I like LNG to get it done with jobs on the line.
E-Star +1.5 Games vs. EDG (-165) 1.5u, E-star ML (+190) 1u
I couldn’t pass on one more opportunity to lose all my money on E-star. There’s a reason for this though: E-STAR HAS THE STATISTICS OF A PLAYOFF TEAM. I will die on this hill. They have: the same GSPD as WE, the same Early Game Rating as JDG, and the same GD@15 and Dragon Rate as Suning. How do they keep losing?
EDG, for their part, is also a good stats, bad record team who threw some big leads this split. This bet has more to do with my belief in some sort of positive regression coming for E-star, than a fade of EDG.
Damwon Gaming -1.5 Games vs. Seol Hae One, DRX ML vs. Sandbox, Top Esports ML vs. WE (-140) 1u
I’m not going to insult anyone’s intelligence by talking through why DWG is going to 2-0 Seol Hae One. DRX is also in a huge mismatch here. It’s another one of those games where if you lined up the 10 players for a playground pickup game, every DRX player would be picked before Sandbox had one picked. So, that brings us to Top against WE.
Top still has the first seed in play here so I expect them to be fully motivated. When they are fully motivated, they should smash WE. WE’s try-to-survive and late game team fight style works against bad teams with laners who don’t get regularly ahead. That’s not TOP. Top has some of the best laners in LoL backed by a very aggressive jungler in Karsa. I expect TOP to smash this matchup, but have got burned on my expectations in the LPL this month so I did not play the -1.5.
SK ML vs. Origen (-110) 2u
Origen has completely forgotten how to win games. The Origen of old wins their game today, 99 times out of 100. They had solid teamfighting tools. They had a Gold lead at 15. They were first to multiple objectives. It was a classic Origen win, but then they lost. It was as if they completely froze with the lead. Their decisiveness went completely out the window and Nukeduck had a couple of headscratchers. This team looks done. I would expect some pretty big changes for them in the offseason.
SK remains a good team with good stats. They played a competitive game with G2 today that could have gone either way. I honestly could not believe they were the underdog here.
Mad Lions ML vs. Rogue (-130) 2u
Rogue is a bit of a pretender. They are very good at their style of LOL, but kind of collapse when their opponent’s don’t let them dictate the pace of a game. Mad Lions has never let their opponents dictate the pace of a game in their history. MAD will go down fighting in every situation. They are basically the anti-Rogue.
In games where Larssen can’t get massively ahead, Rogue has struggled this split. I would not count on him getting ahead of Humanoid, who has an 8.6 CSD@10 and 218 XPD@10. Rogue doesn’t have a lot of other win conditions. I expect Mad to know this and to target Larssen heavily in this match.
Liquid vs. Immortals Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u
Liquid gets first blood at 6 minutes. Liquid gets first drake at 8 minutes. Liquid gets first baron at 20 minutes. Liquid wins game 10-2 at 26 minutes. This is the script of every TL game against bad teams. I don’t expect the writers to be changing it up this week.
Golden Guardians ML vs. Evil Geniuses (-140) 1u, GGS vs. EG Over 21.5 (-115) 1u
The guys over at The Gold Card Podcast graciously featured this pick on their new “Listener Pick of the Week” segment and if you read my blog, but don’t follow them and listen to their podcast what are you doing?
My reasoning here is simple: Evil Geniuses are cooked. They play more like a solo queue team with every member having a different opinion on what they should do. Their first dragon fight in their game against FLY last week was one of the worst managed things I’ve seen in pro LoL. Everybody on this team needs a retirement or a fresh start elsewhere because this ain’t it. They are comically bad for how good they look on paper. Golden Guardians played a closer than it looked game with a very good TSM team tonight and I came away even more impressed with them. They will easily be able to take advantage of EG’s miscommunications.
I like the over here because EG is giving up insane totals in their losses. Their deaths per loss is at 18 this split. That’s more like an LPL team. The totals in their losses average 28. 21.5 should be an easy over.