8/7 LEC and LCS Breakdown

I can not wait to be all over Damwon Gaming on the Worlds futures markets. Every person who pays attention to these things is talking about it and the guys over at The Gold Card Podcast  talked extensively about it, but this team is a true statistical outlier. Not like a 2020 statistical outlier, like the most singularly dominant team in LoL history kind of statistical outlier. I mentioned in my LCK breakdown that I thought they weren’t quite that good. I’m not so sure anymore. Canyon is becoming the kind of dominant player who defines seasons. 2018, it was TheShy, 2019, it was Doinb, I think 2020 is Canyon’s year. His Karthus is so good it should be illegal. 

On the other side, RNG just took a dump on what should have been a very profitable day. I will not miss that team come playoff time. They probably did me a favor by getting themselves eliminated so I can’t bet on them. On to the LEC and LCS..

LEC

Vitality vs. Rogue Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u, Rogue ML in a parlay

Rogue doesn’t lose to teams like Vitality. In fact, the only teams Rogue has lost to that are below them in the standings this season are G2 and SK–two teams that often play early game focused compositions and put pressure on Rogue’s excellent laners. That’s not Vitality’s game. They’re more like a diet Rogue type of team, who take what their opponents give them and can finish games when given leads. Rogue is way better than them at that particular style. 

I expect Rogue to stomp here. Rogue stomps are some of the lowest kill totals in the league. In their games against bottom 4 teams, only 1 has gone over 20 kills in a weird outlier against Schalke where they got a little behind in the early game. 

Origen vs. XL Over 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

There’s a chance that both of these teams play tight because they desperately need it for playoffs. I’m leaning the other way. I think both teams will be eager to show they belong in the playoffs and can play a different style from what they’ve shown. It is also as close as a match can get statistically. I like overs in close matches. Close matches tend to trade kill for kill and I could see that happening here. Neither of these teams has been particularly efficient with leads making up the 7th and 8th spot in the league in Mid-to-late rating. If you have game time spreads at your book, I’d go over there too.

Fnatic ML vs. Schalke 04 (-190) 2u

Gillius was great last week. We’ve seen this before. His playstyle can still catch teams off-guard. It won’t catch the vets of FNC off-guard. This is just a don’t overthink it spot. In any other season, Fnatic would be a -300 favorite against this Schalke team. They are better all over the map. Even in the midst of this rough season, Fnatic still has one of the best Early Game Ratings in the LEC at 50.3. In their two upsets last weekend, Schalke was able to win through Gilius’ aggressive early game jungling, he shouldn’t be able to do that here. I still believe in Fnatic. They need this win.

Mad Lions- Rogue ML Parlay (-110) 1u

I already talked about the Rogue stomp, so let’s take a look at the Mad Lions- Misfits matchup. I do think Mad Lions have been a little overrated all season. Their style is kind of custom-made for Best of 1s where they can surprise their opponents with quicker reads on the meta and weird picks. But Misfits suck. They are the worst GSPD team in the LEC. Their laners have been falling behind regularly this split with negative CS differentials and Gold differentials. DanDan still doesn’t really look like an LEC-quality player, Febiven might not be good anymore, and Razork has been a total coinflip. MAD Lions should be able to get right pretty easily here.

LCS

Dignitas vs. Cloud 9 Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

Cloud 9 needs to kick someone’s ass. It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve seen that. They used to get unbelievably ahead in lanes and then use those leads to kill their opponents repeatedly on their side of the maps. Dignitas need to show they can still do something. The past few games against top teams, they have just slowly conceded into their base. I don’t think Dardoch can be happy with that. I expect Dignitas to draft a full early game composition in this one and keep it close early on and then get smashed later on. That was near the exact script of their first game with C9 that had 31 kills. Give me the over.

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