We’re having a winning week so far thanks to a big Sunday in the LCS. The LPL regular season remains a total mystery to me. RNG who had looked done for weeks decided to play their best LoL of the split on Sunday morning, EDG is suddenly a good team, and OMG with Eric look like a possible playoff team next year. Of course, all of this will probably change tomorrow because that’s how the LPL works. Regardless, I love betting it and have a few spots I like for the next two nights.
V5 -1.5 Games vs. Rogue Warriors (-115) 1u
I think Rogue Warriors is as bad as Dominus, they have just won a couple of coin-flips that Dominus lost this split. The stats agree with me. Rogue Warriors is second-to-last in the LPL in GSPD, GPR, and Early Game Rating at oracleselixir.com with not much room between them and Dominus. I believe if Dominus was playing V5 this line would be more like -180. Victory Five, despite a stumble against a motivated and talented EDG team, has not really messed around against bad teams this split. They have 2-0’d Vici, Estar, LNG, and Dominus already and I expect them to do the same against Rogue Warriors here. I really like their mid-jungle duo to get ahead here and carry them in both games. Victory Five holds the second best early game rating in the league and should smash Rogue Warriors there.
RNG ML vs. BiliBili parlayed with Victory 5 ML (-140) 1u
If I went full stats here, the model really likes BiliBili at this number against RNG, but I don’t think we can ignore what we just saw from RNG. They looked more like the serious team that their talent says they should be against Top. Xiaohu was particularly impressive– going punch-for-punch with Knight. If he plays like that again, I think FoFo’s in trouble. BLG, with Meteor, has thrived against teams with questionable early game junglers. Say what you want about XLB, but a lack of early game presence has never been his issue. This will be a very good test for RNG, if they want to make a real run in the playoffs they have to beat BLG here.
JDG vs. OMG Over 2.5 Games (+165) 1u
OMG has looked revitalized with their substitutes in. Eric has shown flashes of real star potential and the team seems to have found an identity with him as the main carry. They’ve never been quite as bad as their record anyway with talented players in every lane. JDG, for their part, has dropped some games this split after going on an isane 2-0 run last split. Their 2-1 victories include teams like Rogue Warriors, Vici, and LGD, teams that I would put right in OMG’s range. At +165, there’s value here.
SNG vs. Vici Over 2.5 Games (+100) 1u
Vici needs this series to stay in the playoff hunt. Suning has a chance to hold sole control of 4th. I think both teams come in extra motivated for this one. That kind of series usually leads to 3 games. I also think the talent matchups in this series are closer than a lot of people think. There’s not a single lane that stands out as a huge mismatch either way. Obviously, Vici’s jungle situation has been a question mark all season, but in spite of that they’re winning games. Most of all, looking at the schedule for both of these teams, you’ll see two teams that usually go 3 games against teams in the middle of the playoff picture. Suning has played 3 games serieses with WE, EDG, BLG, RNG, FPX and V5. Doesn’t it feel like Vici fits in perfectly in that list? This one’s going 3.
8/6 and 8/7
Damwon Gaming ML vs. Gen. G (-175) 2u, Damwon -1.5 (+170) 1u
Last week after losing a tightly contested series early in the split to DRX, Damwon came out and kicked their asses. It’s true that DRX tried out some “interesting” compositions in that series and perhaps did not show their best, but DWG truly dismantled them. We have a similar spot here with Damwon against Gen. G. Their first series of the split could have easily gone either way in a tightly contested 3-game series. I kind of think Damwon comes out and serves another revenge asskicking. Canyon and Showmaker are playing out of their minds right now. It really looks to me like no LCK jungler can keep up with Canyon right now. The stats have Damwon Gaming as the most dominant team in recent memory. That is probably a slight overrating, but this team is legitimately great. I just can’t see Gen.G keeping up with Damwon’s pace right now, despite being better in that regard this split.
T1 -1.5 Games vs. SeolHaeOne Prince, KT Rolster ML vs. HLE, and Afree ca ML vs Team Dynamics parlay (+105) 1u
SeolHaeOne Prince is terrible, like Victory 5 last split kind of terrible. They have legitimately only looked competitive 2 or 3 times this split. T1 is rounding back into form after the Faker benching and just always take care of business against teams like SHP. I honestly don’t hate a play on the T1 -1.5 at -345.
Hanwa is also terrible. They’ve only really looked competitive 2 or 3 times this split. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. KT is a little underrated after starting off the season a little funky. Even so, they have not even really come close to losing a game to a team like HLE. They need this game to stay alive and easily take care of business.
After a hot start, teams have started to catch on to Team Dynamics with time to scout them. Their initial ability to play aggressive, early-game focused LoL caught a few teams off guard, but their talent deficit has slowly become clearer as the split has gone on. I think that’s where they’re in real trouble here. I would take pretty much every player on Afreeca over their counterpart on Dynamics. The talent gap will be too much for TD to overcome in this one.