Brutal stuff yesterday. I believed a little too strongly in the improvement of BiliBili and got beat up by another upset-filled day in LEC. There is still lots of season left and playoffs are typically my most profitable time, so I’m looking forward to getting back into the green there.
Golden Guardians -5.5 Kills vs. CLG (-115) 1u
I don’t want to overreact too much to one game, but that was impressive stuff from Golden Guardians yesterday. They didn’t just win by cheesing C9, but legitimately outplayed them in every stage of the game. It was the kind of performance you would expect from a team with legitimate Worlds aspirations. They still need to show they can close a game out easily. There’s no better team to do that against CLG, who have completely fallen apart. The jungle difference in this game alone is enough to like Golden Guardians. Closer is a legitimate MVP candidate and Wiggily is probably the worst jungler in the league. There’s also a certain swagger about this team that makes me believe they are likely to get a nice boost from yesterday’s win. I think Golden Guardians win this one easily.
Cloud9 vs. TSM Under 22.5 Kills (-115) 1u
It’s difficult to say what version of these teams is going to show up today. Cloud 9 after being a bastion of stability in the LCS have started to lay a few eggs, TSM is, well, TSM. They are endlessly inconsistent and have simultaneously looked like the best team in the league and the worst in the same game this season. Here’s one thing that’s consistent about these teams: their wins are blowouts and rarely go over 22 kills. Both teams average around 21 kills in wins, despite having some huge outliers in those numbers. Whoever defines the tempo of this game, whether it be the long, drawn-out, low kill style of TSM or the fast, early kills, end the game in 20 style of Cloud9, I like this one to go under.
100 Thieves ML vs. Immortals (-165) 2u
I didn’t look at it before 100 Thieves’ game with Flyquest, but I would guess that this number was closer to -200. To me, that’s a more accurate reflection of where these teams are at. Immortals just doesn’t really do anything. They won yesterday because Dignitas completely handed them the game and Xmithie had more experience in late game situations than anyone else on the rift. I don’t expect this one to get to those stages. 100 Thieves with Contractz has been one of the better Early Game teams in the league. Immortals is awful in that stage of the game with a rating of 29.5. That is the lowest Early Game Rating in professional LoL at oracleselixir.com. 100 Thieves’ collection of talent is also just a full mismatch for Immortals. They need this one to make the playoffs, give me 100T.
Flyquest ML vs. Evil Geniuses (-140) 2u
I think we’re going to see a full Evil Geniuses collapse here. There’s no stats kept on team chemistry, but the film on this team says they hate each other. There are so many times in game where you can tell they have differing opinions about what they should do. Bang, in particular, will just do whatever he thinks his best even if it means his team loses a teamfight. The number of times he’s been late to a drake fight because he’s clearing one last wave on the bot lane this season is alarming. Flyquest is the worst team you can be against in these situations. They are a solid, steady team that takes everything that you give them and is never late to an objective. I’m done going against FLY, which means you should probably immediately sell on them.
Parlay: GGS, FLY, 100T ML Parlay (+285) 1u