7/19 LoL betting breakdown

I wish everyday could be like today, but I would probably be retired if that were the case. We’re halfway through the split with a bigger sample size of roster moves and current form. I like how some of the statistical analysis is shaping up. Will I have big losing days again? Of course, but I’ve felt a lot better about the process over the last couple of weeks and felt like even when I lost, it wasn’t because of anything dumb on my end. Not something I’ve always been able to say. On to the bets:

LPL

Top Esports -1.5 vs. Vici (-175) 1u

I would be a lot more cautious here if Top wasn’t coming off their first loss. Vici is an above average LPL team since getting their stuff together mid-split. I like them on plus money to take a game against all the other top teams, but not here. Top when they are one hundred percent engaged are near unbeatable. They have embarrassed better teams than Vici. Their astronomical 1.64 K:D ratio tells you this team rarely messes around. With the V5 loss fresh in their mind, they won’t be messing around here. Poor Vici is about to run into a buzzsaw.

JDG ML vs. Fun Plus Phoenix (-230) 2u, JDG -1.5 (+135) 1u

I think FPX is in real trouble. Their Top and Bot lanes do not look like elite level players anymore. This happens sometimes in LoL. When it’s over for certain players, it’s just over. I I have a suspicion it’s over for Lwx and Crisp. LokeN and Lvmao are the worst possible bot lane you could be against when you’re having struggles. LokeN is averaging a +246 GD@15 over his opponents while LWX is giving up a -42. With a few more carry options in the jungle available again, Kanavi could take off like he did the second half of last split as well. I think JDG is still the best or second best team in the world. They should beat FPX.

LCK

Team Dynamics +1.5 Games vs. DRX (+135) 1u, Team Dynamics ML (+450) 0.5u

DRX is a wild team. Most of the time they fall on the chaotic good side of things, but occasionally they like to let their chaotic bad show and punt games. If they punt against Dynamics, Dynamics is good enough to catch it. Dynamics is actually exactly the kind of team you want to take a shot on against the IG, DRX, and G2s of the world. They play solid, standard, kind of boring LoL. Sometimes the chaotic teams are driven to madness by them. Silly narratives aside, the statistics say this number is way too big as well.

LCS

TL/C9/Napoli ML Parlay (+120) 1u

Team Liquid has a chance to go first for a moment here. 100 Thieves have won their games by punishing teams who got out of line in the early game. Liquid doesn’t do that. 100T is also just an autofade for me against teams with elite mid laners, Liquid fits that bill. 

I love C9 off of 2 losses. I just don’t see a world where this team loses three in a row. They are the most dominant team in any region across pretty much all the numbers. They tried some goofy stuff in their last two. I expect them to get back to basics here and stomp.

When I put this parlay together it was at about -200 and I could not justify it for a parlay. So we’ll take Napoli in soccer to get us to plus money. Napoli is a solid home team in great form. They should beat Udinese with relative ease.

 C9-FLY Under 24.5 Kills (-115) 1u

I like C9 to take care of business pretty quick here and that means going under. Flyquest were basically gifted the game by TSM in 5 minutes today, but took forever to close it out. It wasn’t a confidence-inspiring performance to me. Santorin has historically struggled against early game monsters like Blaber. I see this one ending something like 14-2.

GGS vs. Dignitas Over 20.5 kills (-115) 1u 

This one is the complete opposite of the last one. This is too close to call. They are basically the same team in my eyes now with Dignitas’ new rosters. They have a similar strength in their mid-jungle duos and early games. I expect both of them to get bloody early and often. I think this number is way too low. Take the over.

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