7/18 LoL Betting Breakdown

My LoL betting day was saved by TSM and ruined by G2. That’s not a phrase I write very often and hope to not write again. There’s been a couple of public overreactions to recent results that have gone significantly in our favor in the last two weeks. TSM opened as -200 favorites and were down to -160 by game time. That’s a lot of credit for a 100 Thieves team that had played three total games together. I will definitely be looking for that kind of spot in the future.

LCK

KT Rolster ML vs. Sandbox (-115) 1u, KT -1.5 Games (+235) 0.5u

Speaking of overreactions to recent results, we have one here! KT has a more talented roster all over the map than Sandbox. Credit to Sandbox for stringing together results against the worst teams in the LCK, I don’t expect that to continue here. Despite their recent run of form, Sandbox is still not controlling the gold in their games with a GSPD of -5.0%. KT has played a pretty brutal schedule and maintained the same record and a better GSPD. Give me the arrows here.

Gen.G ML vs. T1 (-105) 2u, Gen. G -1.5 Games (+270) 1u

There’s only one thing that would make you like T1 in this matchup: history. T1 has dominated Gen.G in recent seasons. It has not mattered what their records, stats, compositions were, it always ended with a T1 dub. I just can’t pass over those other things. Gen.G is solidly ahead of T1 in every single statistic I use for my handicapping. I can’t ignore that because of T1’s recent dominance of this team. This is also no longer just a cupcake punching team for Gen.G. They have dominant wins against Afreeca and Team Dynamics and a very respectable hardfought win against Damwon. I will feel like an idiot tomorrow when T1 2-0s this, but sometimes you just have to follow the numbers.

LPL

BilliBilli Gaming ML vs. Dominus (-245) 1u, BilliBilli -1.5 Games (+130) 1u 

I think Dominus is terrible, like the worst team in the league kind of terrible.  I would take everyone, but LNG to 2-0 them. They have no idea what to do unless their top side carries them. I don’t see that happening with Meteor back in the lineup. He’s just not going to let Kingen hang out to dry like that against Natural. Everywhere else on the map, I favor BilliBilli. Don’t overthink it, take the better team.

IG vs. RNG 

Just kidding. I am not touching this game with a ten foot pole.

LEC

SK Gaming ML vs. FC Schalke 04 (-200) 2u, Under 24.5 (-115) 1u

What’s going on here? Schalke is a very bad team with a very bad bot lane. SK is a pretty good team with a very good bot lane. SK should be -250 right? That’s the assumption I’m running with here. Schalke’s stats have them as one of the worst teams in the world and the eye test is not much better. If SK want to make playoffs which they have the talent to do, they have to beat Schalke tomorrow.

 The total suggests the books think this will be close too because Schalke’s closer games have been high totals. I just don’t agree. I expect a pretty similar game script to today’s SK game: bot lane gets ahead and dominates the game. If that’s the case, you have to like the under.

Fnatic -6.5 Kills vs. Vitality (-105) 1u, Under 24.5 Kills (-125) 1u

Fnatic is in one of my favorite spots here in all sports: a good team who got the losing monkey off their back. They should have lost today, but somehow pulled it out. I think that has them riding high into this one. Beyond that, they’re just much better than Vitality. If you had told me preseason that I could bet FNC -6.5 against Vitality, I would have been inquiring about my credit limit. It’s not quite that much of a lock with recent results, but it’s still good value. As I mentioned yesterday, I like the under in stomp narratives.

G2 vs. MAD Lions Under 27.5 (-115) 1u

I have no idea who is going to win this game. I do know that this total was made with last year’s meta and teams in mind. G2, in particular, is just not an extremely bloody team anymore. They average 24.5 kill totals in wins and 23 in losses. It is very rare that kind of team gets a 28 total line. Even Mad Lions, the bloodiest team in the league, averages 23 kill totals in wins and 27 in losses. I understand that the history of these teams goes way over, but  again, I don’t think you can totally discount recent numbers against other teams. We’re going to trust our projections here.

LCS

TSM ML vs. Flyquest (-130) 1u

I wish I could quit TSM, but I just can’t. They are so frustrating because of their immense potential. You can count on all their lanes to get small advantages against pretty much every team in the league. Spica hasn’t been near the disaster folks expected him to be. Treatz looked promising in his debut. And yet, I still feel terrible putting in a bet on them. This is because they often get to the mid game and look like they have no idea what to do anymore. It’s as if they get a gold lead at 15 minutes and think they have already won the game. I am still taking them. Flyquest is one of the worst early game teams in the league and are better against teams that are passive there. TSM has not been particularly passive in the early game and holds the 4th best Early Game Rating in the league. With this stat mattering more than it ever has, I’ll take TSM reluctantly.

Golden Guardians ML vs. Immortals (-150) 2u

This is another numbers play. The numbers say that Golden Guardians is a significantly better team than Immortals. Those numbers, of course, include multiple rosters for Immortals, but I am unconvinced that they are significantly improved by their moves and their numbers haven’t dramatically improved. Also, if you break it down lane by lane, I think I would give GGS the edge everywhere, but Top.   Xmithie has struggled against carry junglers in his career. With Kha’zix back in the meta, I think we’re in for a “diffy in the jiffy”.

CLG ML vs. Dignitas (-165) 1u

CLG will let teams beat themselves. If there’s one thing Dardoch has been elite at in his career, it’s beating himself. I see Dardoch getting out of position and punished by a famous roaming pick from Pobelter multiple times in this one. Dignitas beat two teams that love to take non-advantageous fights last week and try to outplay. That is not CLG. Despite having a talent disadvantage, CLG has been a pretty smart team this split. They’ve come back from multiple deficits by waiting for their opponents to do something dumb. Dignitas will do something dumb in this game.

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