6/27 Soccer and LoL picks

6/26 Recap

An overall great day that was close to a fantastic day. If you’re betting on EDG and Rogue Warriors you have to expect them to throw at least 40% of their games though, so I shouldn’t complain. Soccer has really been heating up for me and I’ve got lots of spots I like tomorrow. With MLS returning in a couple weeks, I’ll definitely be looking to do more soccer.

Soccer

Wolves -0.5, -1 vs. Aston Villa (+105) 1u

I’m honestly pretty shocked that there is plus money available here. Wolves have everything to play for with Manchester United and 5th place still within reach. They are the far superior team to Villa. Villa has been one of the worst teams at home during the course of the season and, despite stringing together a few nice results since the break, is not a good defensive team. I think Wolves winning by 2 or more is very much in play and even if they just win by one we cash half the bet.

Paderborn Double Chance* vs. Frankfurt (+250) 1u

Paderborn is awful. This is a real hold your nose special. They have been surprisingly better on the road. 2 of their 4 wins and 6 of their 8 draws this season have come on the road. They also have a better XG differential on the road than they do at home. Neither team has anything but pride to play for so I don’t expect any type of motivation gap. Frankfurt has been pretty awful since returning from the break and have looked ready to start their summer for a couple weeks. Some Paderborn players will be playing as an audition to stay in the Bundesliga. I like Paderborn to get a result.

Augsburg Double Chance vs. RB Leipzig (+200) 1u

Another “pride only” matchup. Augsburg have a positive expected goal differential at home despite being the 5th worst team in the league. That is near unheard of. They are known to sneak a result at home with a draw there against Bayern Munich already this season. They are tough to break down at home and Leipzig can struggle against that kind of team. Take some big plus money on the double chance.

Hertha Berlin +1.5 vs. Borussia Monchengladbach (-115) 1u

Hertha are near the talent-level of a top Bundesliga team. It just hasn’t worked out for them this season. They should be riding high off an impressive 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen last weekend. Borussia is in exactly the same class as Leverkusen at near-elite. Hertha is another one of those rare clubs that seems to get a boost away from home with a better expected goal differential on the road. I would expect M’gladbach to win this one with their guaranteed UCL spot up for grabs, but 2 goals feels like a tall task against a side with Hertha’s talent.

FC Koln +1 Goal vs. Werder Bremen (-120) 2u

Werder Bremen should not be favored by a goal over anyone, but especially not Koln who have been truly unlucky this season. They have a -3 expected goal differential and a -13 actual goal differential. They are much closer to mid table quality than their results say. Werder Bremen has been decent at parking a bus in front of goal since the covid return, but this team is coming a 3-1 loss to a terrible Mainz team. Werder Bremen has 1 (!) win at home for the entire season. If they do anything but win we profit. Lock this one up, will almost definitely be +0.5 tomorrow.

Schalke 04 +0.5, +1 Goal vs. SC Freiburg (-125) 1u

 

I am announcing that I am officially unretiring from betting on Schalke 04. It has been a very long week for me and I can’t go on any longer without losing money on S04. Here’s the deal: Freiburg actually suck. There is a terrible team hiding behind some very fortunate results.They are the anti-Koln. They have a -19 expected goal differential, but a -3 actual goal differential. If you play this season out 100 times, Freiburg would lose at least 3 more matches a lot of times. We’re counting on that catching up to them here. This play has nothing to do with Schalke who are still very much in my doghouse.

Union Berlin +0.5 Goals vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf (-120) 1u, 0-0  final result (+1100) 0.25u

I will not be watching a second of this match and neither should you. These are two of the lowest scoring teams in the league who have been even worse in that department since the break. Dusseldorf needs at least a draw here to guarantee their relegation playoff and will almost definitely be sitting back for most of the game. Union has an inclination to play exactly the same way. Take whoever has the plus goal and the 0-0 result for fun (or anti-fun).



LPL

Estar +1.5 Games vs. FPX (-145) 2u, Estar ML (+220) 1u

FPX have not looked right since their loss to TES in the finals of the Mid-Season Cup. They look a little slow to pick up the meta and maybe to be struggling with motivation issues. Estar has been every bit as good as their spring split. just lost a couple coin flips that they won in the spring. I think this is good value against a struggling FPX who has a tendency to go to 3 games anyway with 3 out of their first 4 in summer going the distance. Estar is the kind of team that will always beat teams that are in a funk because they play a solid, fundamental style. That might not allow you to beat the best teams at their peak, but it definitely beat teams who might do something to beat themselves.

LCK

KT Rolster +1.5 Games (-165) 2u, KT Rolster ML (+190) 1u

 

This line looks a little too tilted towards recent results. Damwon has got off to  a hot start while KT has done the opposite. We have a lot more evidence from the spring that says these teams are very similar in quality. In fact, they were near identical in the metrics I like such as GSPD, Early Game Rating, Gold diff at 15, etc. Damwon separated themselves with great, dominant performances against the worst teams in the league, but in their one test so far against a top team they faltered a bit. +190 is just too much value in a game between to teams that won around 55% of their games last split. 

LEC

SK Gaming ML vs. Vitality  (-145) 1u

This line has moved a bit, but I think I would bet it up to -175. Vitality is still one of the worst teams in LEC, they are just no longer THE worst team in the league. SK is a legit playoff team. So far they have posted a +8% GSPD, even with 2 losses. Pretenders don’t do that. 6 games is a third of a split. That’s a decent sample size. I love the way this team is playing with aggressive drafting and in-game play. They are a class above Vitality and should beat them with ease.

Misfits -5.5 Kills vs. Excel (-115) 1u

Special is going to be in the mid lane against Febiven in this game. Febiven has not been great again this split, but that is a mismatch. When Special has been outmatched, Excel has been terrible. I think we’re going to see another “Mid diff” kind of game here. Excel has not lost by less than 6 kills in any of their losses and were that kind of team last split too.

MAD ML (-130) 1u, MAD vs. Rogue Under 23.5 Kills (-115) 1u

Very ready to admit that I was wrong about the Lions. They are playing some of the most exciting, flexible, and clean LoL in the world right now. I absolutely love what they did to Origen today. Rogue also dismantled Fnatic, but Fnatic is not so secretly terrible early in splits. Rogue showed some flexibility today with an out of the box for them early game comp. It just feels like MAD has a plan for every team right now and beats every team in the draft stage. I would expect them to trap Rogue into picking their favorite late game scaling champs and then just running them off the map in the early game like they did to Origen today. 

G2 vs. FNC Under 25.5 Kills (-115) 1u

In normal circumstances, I would hammer the over between these two teams. These are not normal circumstances. I can not get a feel for how seriously either of these teams is taking games right now. My guess is: not that serious.   If that’s the case tomorrow, I would expect a lot of hype and then one of the teams to just stomp the other. 26 kills is a lot for a stomp in this meta. In fact, the teams have only gone over that number in 3 of their first 12 matchups this season and that includes some close games with high total teams. 

LCS

TSM ML vs. EG (+145) 2u

If TSM drafts Lee Sin, I will be hedging out of this, but they have to learn from their drafting mistakes at some point right? If they don’t just lose in pick/ban then these teams are as even as they come with TSM probably having a little edge in top and bot and EG having the edge in the jungle. It’s my policy that if two even teams are playing and one has plus money in the LCS, you gotta take the plus money. Even when that team is TSM. TSM actually have a positive GSPD despite getting destroyed by TL and FLY which tells you they probably aren’t as bad as those two games showed. They really need this game and I like the vets with their backs against the wall.

Golden Guardians -5.5 kills vs. Immortals (-105) 1u

The books have not caught up to how bad Immortals yet in my opinion. Usually, I would fear a situation where the team has just fired people and players might be playing for their jobs, but I just don’t see it with this IMT squad. GGS strength is in their mid-jungle duo and that’s exactly where Immortals are at their worst.  GGS have also been a bit unlucky with their schedule and results so far. I like them to start pushing for playoffs here.

TL -7.5 vs. Dignitas (-115) 2u

Dignitas is a truly terrible team. I am not even really sure what their objectives are for this season. Liquid should have taken care of business yesterday against C9. They will wipe the floor with Dig.

*Double chance is a kind of bet in soccer where you win if the team draws or wins.

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