6/13 Recap: 7-7 for +0.25u
LCS and LEC remain very difficult to profit on. In best of 1s, truly anything can happen, but I do think we learned a couple things yesterday. SK and S04 should have been flipped in our preseason tiers. SK have played out two straight games as well as anyone in the league. I think there’s some opportunities incoming on them as betting markets catch up including tomorrow. In the LCS, EG is legit. I still want to see Kumo on more meta champs, but if we keep going towards tank tops, I think he’s completely serviceable. They seem to all be on the same pageto start. TSM does not seem even in the same book. There was a moment in yesterday’s game where they had 5 people grouped on the dragon for an advantageous fight and then just walked around in split directions until Jensen got an easy engage on Azir. Could have just been a bad day, could be an omen of things to come, we will see. I think I’m putting them in no-bet status for now.
Here’s what I am betting tomorrow:
SK Gaming ML vs. MAD Lions (+225) 1u, Under 26.5 Kills (-115) 1u
Mad beat up on what looks like the worst team in the league to me, XL, yesterday. SK beat up on the other possible worst team in the league in S04. Their game 1 performances could not have been further apart. MAD were utterly dominated by G2. SK won a long, well-played game against Origen who picked up a win against G2 yesterday. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but I’ve loved what we’ve seen from SK so far. They look well coached and have a budding superstar in Crownshot. This line has moved a bit since I bet it this afternoon, but any plus money could be value on SK against MAD in a few weeks. Neither of SK’s wins covered this number, they are a very controlled team right now.
G2-Rogue-FNC ML Parlay (-125) 1u
I think the Top 3 LEC parlay is going to be profitable again for the rest of the season. G2 and FNC just don’t lose to teams like Vitality and XL. No explanation needed there. Rogue looks to have made good use of the offseason with a much more varied approach in their first two games. They stepped to Misfits early and often yesterday something you would not have been able to say about them last split. Schalke look like a total mess. Lurox might be the worst jungler in the league now. You have to think Inspired is licking his chops at that matchup.
G2 vs. Vitality Under 28.5 (-115) 1u , FNC vs. Excel Under 26.5 (-115) 1u
These total numbers have not adjusted to this split yet. With the slower teamfight and poke style we’ve seen in LEC so far, these are tough overs. Playing the under is never the fun play, but it’s the right one here. G2 and FNC are just going to stomp these two teams and can’t get to 29 and 27 kills by themselves.
C9 vs. 100T Over 23.5 kills (-115) 1u
These were two of the higher kill total teams last split and both easily covered this number in their first game. It’s possible that C9 just easily takes 100 Thieves down, but I think 100T will be eager to put up more of a fight than they did in their first game of the season. If they keep it close in the early game, this will go over.
C9-TL ML Parlay (-150) 1u
The only teams in NA that can beat TL and C9 are each other. They are not playing each other this week. I think we’ll be throwing them in lots of parlays this split.
Team Liquid -5.5 kills vs. Golden Guardians (-125) 2u
2 units on a best of 1 is a lot. I just don’t see how Liquid does not cover this number vs. Golden Guardians. They are better than Golden Guardians in every lane and we saw yesterday that Broxah is back on form. CoreJJ completely took over in the first match. You have to love Team Liquid’s bot lane in this spot. GGS might have the worst bot lane in the league. I think we could see another perfect game here.
TSM-Dignitas Over 22.5 Kills, TL- GGS Over 21.5 Kills, CLG-IMT Over 22.5 Kills 1u each
These are all pretty small totals for a league with a lot of teams that are still figuring themselves out. Most of the games in LCS have gone over so far. I would expect that to continue for a week or two as the best teams get better at closing teams out. LCS has rarely been a poke comp heavy league, even when other leagues are doing it. Poke comps lean to the under.